Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:37:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72bd…d37a crypto 1217 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 86d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,320 (-8%) realized −$2,324 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%503W / 688L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day33.6pace
Fees−$144est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$489now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$205
7 days+$187
14 days+$437
30 days−$182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 33% −$1,639
other 32% −$317
sports 25% +$28
world 5% +$112
politics 3% −$101
finance 2% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +11.1% +0.6% 29% 24% -1.9%
≤30d 152 +0.7% -8.9% 35% 32% -12.4%
≤90d 1191 -9.7% -18.3% 42% 40% -15.7%
all 1191 -9.7% -18.3% 42% 40% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 40% -15.7%
10% ← realistic here -26.1% 38% -23.7%
15% -33.2% 35% -31.1%
20% -39.8% 29% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$16 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$489
Realized−$2,324
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses503 / 688
Est. fees paid−$144
Open positions18
Markets (closed)1191 / 1217
History coverage86d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day33.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 1191 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Netherlands 69¢ 68¢ $110 $109 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 57¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Netherlands 46¢ 46¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $51 $52 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Netherlands 26¢ 26¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) Netherlands 13¢ 11¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Spread: Cabo Verde (-5.5) Cabo Verde $2 $23 +$21 (+1049%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 52¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Netherlands (-5.5) Netherlands 10¢ $11 $6 −$5 (-46%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Germany $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5 Over $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 8.5 Over $4 $4 −$0 (-12%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 Over $4 $3 −$1 (-14%)
Spread: Cabo Verde (-3.5) Cabo Verde $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 6.5 Over $3 $2 −$1 (-28%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 7.5 Over $3 $2 −$1 (-33%)
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Germany $2 $1 −$1 (-33%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 7.5 Over $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 155 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 22 $15 −$13 -81%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $51 −$38 -73%
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $411 −$108 -26%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $15 −$3 -20%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 22 $102 −$11 -10%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 22 $36 −$2 -6%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $10 −$2 -22%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $21 +$1 +7%
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $15 −$2 -12%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Jun 22 $8 −$1 -10%
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $18 −$2 -9%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 22 $15 −$2 -14%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $91 +$3 +4%
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 22 $30 +$3 +9%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $51 −$4 -8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 22 $101 −$5 -5%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Japan win on Jun 22 $108 +$93 +86%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $46 −$25 -55%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $25 −$1 -4%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $10 −$6 -56%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $51 −$50 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $31 +$137 +444%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $61 +$85 +140%
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $15 +$172 +1116%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $65 +$34 +53%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$21 +99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $36 −$35 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $51 +$44 +86%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $30 −$22 -73%
Spread: United States (-3.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 19 $31 +$73 +238%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 +$44 +86%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $17 +$35 +207%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$5 -24%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $71 +$99 +140%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$49 +474%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $112 −$110 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 −$6 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$14 +69%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 −$12 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $21 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $52 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $101 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 69¢ $111 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 46¢ $102 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 26¢ $31 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) BUY Netherlands 13¢ $31 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-5.5) BUY Netherlands 10¢ $11 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) AND Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Fra BUY $26 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Bra BUY $21 1h
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No $3 1h
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No $14 1h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No $303 1h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 10¢ $411 1h
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No $15 1h
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No $51 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 11¢ $12 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) SELL Netherlands 25¢ $24 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 56¢ $15 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 25¢ $45 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 40¢ $34 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $12 1h
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $14 1h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 18¢ $7 1h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $8 1h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 10¢ $13 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) SELL Netherlands 11¢ $22 1h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 66¢ $24 1h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 67¢ $33 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $488.52 · official $572.73 · 3500 history records