Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:13:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72bd…5607 crypto 404 markets active 15h ago coverage 151d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 150d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$298 (-4%) realized −$298 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate23%191W / 632L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day21.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,036
7 days−$1,036
14 days−$1,036
30 days−$1,134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$96
sports 11% −$156
politics 4% +$4
economics 1% $0
other 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-59.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 432 -95.3% -95.8% 2% 2% -79.4%
≤30d 470 -90.0% -90.9% 5% 4% -67.6%
≤90d 470 -90.0% -90.9% 5% 4% -67.6%
all 823 -55.1% -59.3% 23% 15% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -59.3% 15% -23.4%
10% ← realistic here -63.2% 11% -30.8%
15% -66.8% 8% -37.5%
20% -70.0% 6% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -65% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -98% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$298
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses191 / 632
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)823 / 404
History coverage151d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day21.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 823 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 29? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 21, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 1, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 9AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 18, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 26, 11AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 7, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 6, 3AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 3, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 6, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 5, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 25, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 4PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 4, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 19, 10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 13, 7AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 4PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 28, 1PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 12PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 2PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 20? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 4, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 25, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 5AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 17, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 5, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 11, 3PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 12PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 11AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 6, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 7, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 75¢ $6 14h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 66¢ $6 16h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Resilience 68¢ $6 22h
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner BUY Game Master 87¢ $6 24h
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof BUY Wingman 78¢ $50 38h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 96¢ $6 44h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 95¢ $6 44h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 88¢ $6 44h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 95¢ $6 44h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 71¢ $5 44h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 82¢ $6 44h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 94¢ $6 45h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 93¢ $6 45h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 83¢ $6 45h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 80¢ $6 45h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 90¢ $6 45h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 95¢ $6 45h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 83¢ $5 45h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 95¢ $6 45h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Resilience 76¢ $6 2d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Resilience 78¢ $6 2d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Resilience 82¢ $6 2d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Resilience 77¢ $6 2d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Resilience 67¢ $5 2d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Resilience 81¢ $6 2d
Dota 2: NA, we'd win vs the bug - Game 2 Winner SELL the bug 99¢ $25 2d
Dota 2: NA, we'd win vs the bug - Game 2 Winner BUY the bug 79¢ $20 6d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B SELL PCIFIC 51¢ $5 6d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B SELL Forsaken 49¢ $2 6d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY Forsaken 38¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records