Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:18:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
72 0x72be…c534 sports 1489 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 58d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$18,617 (-11%) realized −$18,613 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%503W / 979L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day39.8pace
Fees−$3,059est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$546now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,734
7 days−$3,902
14 days−$8,015
30 days−$11,757
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$14,392
crypto 0% −$364
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -66.6% -69.8% 14% 14% -65.3%
≤30d 663 -21.9% -29.3% 32% 31% -24.7%
≤90d 1482 -13.3% -21.5% 34% 34% -17.7%
all 1482 -13.3% -21.5% 34% 34% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.5% 34% -17.7%
10% ← realistic here -29.1% 34% -25.6%
15% -35.9% 33% -32.8%
20% -42.2% 33% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$167 vs −$101 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$546
Realized−$18,613
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses503 / 979
Est. fees paid−$3,059
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1482 / 1489
History coverage59d ⚠
Avg bet$110
Trades / day39.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1482 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Dplus KIA Challengers 39¢ 42¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yakult Brothers 39¢ 40¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Yakult Brothers 40¢ 40¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 46¢ 46¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Yakult Brothers 44¢ 43¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 48¢ 44¢ $70 $65 −$5 (-7%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 49¢ 44¢ $70 $62 −$8 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $143 −$70 -49%
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire Jun 18 $71 −$70 -98%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 18 $71 −$70 -98%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 18 $72 −$70 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 18 $71 −$70 -98%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $71 −$70 -98%
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $71 −$70 -98%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $72 −$70 -98%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 17 $72 −$70 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $71 −$70 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $72 −$70 -97%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $72 −$70 -98%
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Cloud Rising (+1.5) Jun 17 $72 −$70 -98%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $143 −$140 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $71 +$92 +129%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $71 +$69 +97%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $71 +$123 +172%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $142 −$140 -99%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $71 −$70 -98%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $71 −$70 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $71 −$70 -98%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $72 −$70 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $173 +$131 +76%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $72 −$70 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $143 +$135 +94%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $143 −$140 -98%
Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Team Refuser (+1.5) Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $71 −$70 -98%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $143 +$117 +82%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $143 −$73 -52%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $71 −$70 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $72 −$70 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $72 −$70 -98%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $71 −$70 -98%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $71 −$70 -98%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $71 −$70 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $71 +$167 +234%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $214 −$91 -43%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $102 +$111 +109%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $72 −$70 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $71 −$70 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $72 −$70 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $71 −$70 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $71 −$70 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 49¢ $71 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 48¢ $71 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 46¢ $71 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 39¢ $102 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 40¢ $71 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 44¢ $71 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 39¢ $102 1h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky SELL New York Liberty 100¢ $132 2h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY Seattle Storm 39¢ $71 5h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Dallas Wings 42¢ $71 5h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Los Angeles Sparks 19¢ $72 5h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 30¢ $71 5h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 53¢ $71 5h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 20¢ $72 6h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 35¢ $71 6h
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) BUY Team Nemesis 50¢ $102 15h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 29¢ $71 15h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 28¢ $72 15h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY Team Nemesis 20¢ $72 15h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 43¢ $51 19h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 42¢ $71 20h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 34¢ $102 20h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 9¢ $72 22h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 14¢ $72 23h
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Cloud Rising (+1.5) BUY Cloud Rising 23¢ $72 23h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 35¢ $71 25h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 56¢ $41 27h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 56¢ $101 27h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Game Master 38¢ $71 27h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 38¢ $71 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $545.69 · official $547.24 (match) · 3500 history records