Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:23:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72c0…df7f world 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 345d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$27 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%8W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$10
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$22
politics 22% +$13
other 22% −$9
economics 4% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.2% -9.3% 25% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 30 -0.6% -10.0% 17% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 37 -0.4% -9.9% 22% 0% -10.0%
all 49 -0.6% -10.0% 16% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 61% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

345d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses8 / 41
Open positions4
Markets (closed)49 / 53
History coverage345d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 72¢ 76¢ $71 $74 +$4 (+6%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 23¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $70 +$1 +1%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $70 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $26 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $46 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $70 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $129 −$2 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $71 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $13 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $80 −$9 -12%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $87 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $132 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $68 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $79 −$1 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $163 −$2 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $98 −$2 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $99 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $176 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $84 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 02 $140 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $84 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 31 $8 +$1 +6%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $168 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $92 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $69 +$6 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $92 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $67 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $92 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $78 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $98 −$16 -17%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $550 $0 -0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 27 $286 +$5 +2%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 26 $132 +$6 +5%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 23 $176 −$8 -5%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $558 +$1 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 15 $115 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 12 $139 $0 -0%
Will Javier Milei be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 12 $139 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jul 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 12 $138 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 12 $138 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Jul 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 11 $139 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jul 11 $136 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in July? Jul 11 $13 −$1 -5%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 11 $5 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $71 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $71 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $6 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $64 7h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $70 15h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $70 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $26 24h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 28h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $46 43h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $46 45h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $70 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $70 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $49 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $71 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $16 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $55 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $54 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $25 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $78 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $5 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $13 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $13 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $71 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $80 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $87 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.70 · official $74.48 · 215 history records