Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:03:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72c5…a16e other 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$30 (-8%) realized −$46 · open +$16
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%4W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$24
14 days−$34
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 34% +$3
politics 33% −$10
other 33% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -13.1% -21.4% 36% 36% -18.7%
≤30d 14 -11.7% -20.2% 29% 29% -18.3%
≤90d 14 -11.7% -20.2% 29% 29% -18.3%
all 14 -11.7% -20.2% 29% 29% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 29% -18.3%
10% -27.8% 21% -26.1%
15% -34.8% 7% -33.3%
20% -41.2% 0% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses4 / 10
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage9d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 73¢ 100¢ $43 $59 +$16 (+36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $33 +$10 +30%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $39 +$10 +25%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -24%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $5 $0 -9%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $66 −$15 -23%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -62%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 −$22 -43%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +43%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $95 −$9 -10%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 10 $10 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $43 14m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 71¢ $43 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $33 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 90¢ $33 17h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $13 17h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 17h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 28¢ $8 18h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $15 18h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $16 18h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 18h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 26h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $6 37h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 37h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 43h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 89¢ $10 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 88¢ $10 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes $0 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes $2 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes $5 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $49 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 6d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $29 6d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.62 · official $58.62 (match) · 39 history records