Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:45:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72c7…5436 other 134 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$58 (-0%) realized −$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%17W / 116L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$13
14 days−$25
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% −$19
other 26% −$21
sports 21% −$18
crypto 11% −$6
world 3% −$2
economics 3% −$2
finance 2% −$1
culture 2% −$4
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.6% -10.0% 4% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 63 -0.9% -10.3% 8% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 114 -0.6% -10.1% 11% 0% -9.9%
all 133 -0.5% -10.0% 13% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses17 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage104d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $501 −$2 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $110 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $283 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 14 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $56 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $44 $0 -0%
Will Scotland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $24 $0 -1%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $101 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $68 −$1 -1%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $146 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $51 $0 -1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $46 $0 -1%
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $203 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $56 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $299 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $310 −$1 -0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $50 $0 -1%
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $15 $0 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $57 $0 -1%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 07 $56 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $101 −$1 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 06 $57 $0 -1%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 06 $105 −$2 -2%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $49 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $356 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $48 −$4 -9%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $57 $0 -0%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 03 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $86 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $165 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $204 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $860 −$1 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $40 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $165 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $407 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $229 −$2 -1%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $460 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 28 $55 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 27 $54 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $65 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $57 1h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $40 2h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $40 10h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $66 10h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $66 19h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $48 19h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $48 25h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $40 26h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $39 33h
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $56 33h
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $56 41h
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $41 42h
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $42 47h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $49 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $49 2d
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $49 2d
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $49 2d
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $44 2d
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $44 2d
Will Scotland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $24 2d
Will Scotland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $24 3d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $56 3d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $57 3d
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 96¢ $67 3d
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $51 3d
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $18 3d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $42 3d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $42 4d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $51 4d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $51 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.18 · official $57.18 (match) · 537 history records