Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:34:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72d2…e82d politics 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 31L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$418per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$10
other 22% −$3
world 10% −$2
crypto 8% −$2
sports 7% −$2
tech 7% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 32 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$942) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage87d
Avg bet$418
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 27 $43 $0 -0%
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? Jun 27 $36 $0 -0%
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Jun 27 $1,249 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $1,198 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $1,238 −$2 -0%
Will Atlanta United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 26 $52 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Jun 26 $22 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 26 $1,085 −$2 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 14 $59 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 12 $56 $0 -0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? May 12 $53 −$1 -1%
Will Serbia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 12 $880 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $942 −$2 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 11 $941 −$2 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $48 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 11 $945 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $963 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $998 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $916 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 10 $929 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? Apr 10 $129 $0 -0%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Apr 10 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $191 $0 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidentia Apr 06 $28 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Serie A league? Apr 06 $46 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April 1? Apr 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $144 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 01 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $43 10m
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $36 18m
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $12 27m
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $22 43m
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next SELL No 100¢ $1,247 53m
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $36 1h
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next BUY No 100¢ $1,225 1h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $873 1h
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next BUY No 100¢ $24 1h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $323 1h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,198 2h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,236 21h
Will Atlanta United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 21h
Will Atlanta United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 100¢ $8 21h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,206 22h
Will Atlanta United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 100¢ $18 22h
Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 SELL No 98¢ $22 22h
Will Atlanta United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 100¢ $27 22h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 22h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $795 22h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 22h
Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 BUY No 98¢ $22 23h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $288 23h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,085 23h
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $59 44d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $36 44d
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $47 44d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $13 44d
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $12 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 100 history records