Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:07:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72d7…1b97 other 656 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,801 (-1%) realized −$4,607 · open −$194
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate27%172W / 473L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$652per market
Trades / day45.7pace
Fees−$3,700est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$276now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 65d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$43,501
sports 41% +$24,040
crypto 5% −$1,722
tech 2% −$229
finance 1% −$1,340
world 1% −$124
politics 0% −$30
economics 0% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +50.0% +35.7% 37% 37% +3.8%
≤30d 205 -19.0% -26.7% 24% 23% -22.8%
≤90d 645 -8.4% -17.2% 27% 25% -14.4%
all 645 -8.4% -17.2% 27% 25% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 25% -14.4%
10% -25.1% 24% -22.6%
15% ← realistic here -32.3% 23% -30.0%
20% -39.0% 20% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$657) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$923 vs −$384 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$276
Realized−$4,607
Unrealized−$194
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses172 / 473
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$3,700
Open positions5
Markets (closed)645 / 656
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$652
Trades / day45.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 645 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $73 $104 +$31 (+42%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $147 $96 −$50 (-34%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $100 $23 −$77 (-77%)
Spain leading at halftime? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $100 $3 −$97 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AN Jun 15 $308 +$2,883 +936%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win o Jun 15 $36 +$778 +2161%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $66 +$68 +103%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $195 +$124 +63%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $276 +$178 +64%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $357 +$376 +105%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $41 +$5 +12%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 15 $691 −$691 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,635 +$3,673 +225%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $727 −$727 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $579 −$579 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $718 −$259 -36%
Haiti leading at halftime? Jun 14 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $462 −$462 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$198 +386%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 14 $750 −$60 -8%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $781 +$563 +72%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 14 $51 −$11 -22%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $588 −$588 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $1,050 −$1,050 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,211 −$45 -4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $328 +$153 +47%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $804 +$571 +71%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $200 +$146 +73%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 12 $204 −$204 -100%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 12 $710 −$710 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06- Jun 12 $128 +$338 +265%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $491 +$2,463 +502%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $1,120 +$553 +49%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $217 +$182 +84%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-06? Jun 10 $119 −$119 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 10 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 10 $52 −$52 -100%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 10 $2,621 −$2,621 -100%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $1,444 −$1,444 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $242 +$156 +64%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $103 −$93 -90%
APYX FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 08 $51 −$36 -72%
APYX FDV above $150M one day after launch? Jun 08 $28 −$12 -42%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 06 $845 +$606 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 22m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France vs. Senegal end in a d BUY 9¢ $308 5h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? SELL Yes 12¢ $110 14h
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $151 14h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 44¢ $224 14h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 45¢ $229 14h
Sweden leading at halftime? SELL Yes 80¢ $732 14h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? SELL Yes 8¢ $24 14h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? SELL Yes 13¢ $46 14h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 26¢ $276 15h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 11¢ $41 15h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 5¢ $66 15h
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $357 15h
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $160 15h
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 15h
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $6 15h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 90¢ $5,308 16h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1,022 16h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $613 18h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 10¢ $3 18h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 10¢ $46 18h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 6¢ $36 18h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 18h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 18h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 9¢ $4 18h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 9¢ $2 18h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 9¢ $0 18h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 9¢ $1 18h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 9¢ $0 18h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 9¢ $67 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $275.99 · official $575.98 · 3500 history records