Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:53:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
72 0x72db…bad7 politics 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 636d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 79L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 97% −$17
other 2% $0
sports 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 79 -0.6% -10.0% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

636d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)79 / 79
History coverage636d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 79 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $54 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $54 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 16 $54 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 14 $54 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $55 $0 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $55 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 23 $55 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Mar 18 $55 $0 +0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 12 $55 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 08 $55 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 07 $56 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 03 $56 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 06 $55 $0 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 24 $54 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Everton be relegated? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the Eastern Conference? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ben Carson be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Hockey Club win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the Eastern Conference? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will 2024 be the hottest year on record? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama attend presidential inauguration? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Joni Ernst be the next Senate Majority Leader? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
TikTok banned in the US in 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will another player be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $15k in 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Apple invest in OpenAI in 2024? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dejounte Murray lead the NBA in Assists? Dec 20 $1 $0 -0%
Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 20 $0 $0 -1%
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in Rebounds? Dec 20 $0 $0 -1%
Will Arch Manning win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will Sevilla FC win La Liga? Dec 09 $0 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in his first 100 days? Dec 09 $1 $0 -3%
Will Sam LaPorta be the top Fantasy Tight End? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Kyler Murray be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Dec 09 $0 $0 -0%
Will Evan Mobley win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Dec 09 $0 $0 -6%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Democrats win popular vote by 0-1%? Dec 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Bills win the AFC East? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in November? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Mike Davis be Trump's Attorney General? Nov 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 26 $1 $0 -2%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times Nov 22-29? Nov 26 $0 $0 -2%
Will Monaco win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 17 $0 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 1h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $47 12h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 12h
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 26d
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 26d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $54 40d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $54 41d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 42d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 43d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 67d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 68d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 72d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 72d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 84d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 84d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $55 94d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $55 95d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 99d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 100d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 101d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 102d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 105d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 106d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 109d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 109d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $55 110d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 110d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $55 114d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $56 115d
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $55 139d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 207 history records