Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:21:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
72 0x72db…1029 sports 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist
Total PnL +$737 (+30%) realized +$740 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate66%25W / 13L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$79
7 days+$389
14 days+$709
30 days+$709
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$706
other 4% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +16.4% +5.3% 64% 59% +12.7%
≤30d 38 +22.7% +11.0% 66% 63% +17.6%
≤90d 38 +22.7% +11.0% 66% 63% +17.6%
all 38 +22.7% +11.0% 66% 63% +17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.0% 63% +17.6%
10% +0.4% 61% +6.4%
15% -9.3% 61% -3.9%
20% -18.2% 61% -13.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$51 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.07 per $1 lost it wins $2.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$740
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses25 / 13
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage14d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mallorca Championships: Lorenzo Sonego vs Miomir Kecmanovic Miomir Kecmanovic 55¢ 54¢ $99 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Pol Martin Tiffo Jun 22 $109 −$109 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 22 $102 +$121 +119%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $99 +$5 +5%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 21 $95 +$66 +70%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov Jun 20 $92 +$101 +109%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $86 +$79 +92%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $74 +$63 +86%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $74 +$81 +109%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Parma: Jacopo Vasami vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot Jun 17 $65 −$65 -100%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 17 $64 +$44 +69%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $66 +$72 +109%
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 17 $64 +$53 +83%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 17 $63 +$46 +73%
Figueira Da Foz: Viktoria Hruncakova vs Yeon-Woo Ku Jun 17 $64 +$57 +90%
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 17 $64 +$47 +73%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $63 −$63 -99%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Jun 16 $74 +$54 +73%
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 15 $61 +$32 +52%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $61 +$40 +65%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $61 +$109 +180%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $47 +$35 +73%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $47 +$44 +93%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $46 +$46 +101%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $47 +$39 +83%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $47 +$37 +79%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $57 −$57 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -3%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $51 +$40 +79%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $50 +$45 +89%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $101 +$13 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mallorca Championships: Lorenzo Sonego vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 55¢ $101 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $1 9h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $3 9h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $1 9h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Pol Martin Tiffo BUY Gilles Arnaud Bailly 53¢ $109 26h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes 100¢ $104 32h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 45¢ $102 33h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 95¢ $99 35h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 58¢ $95 39h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Jurij Rodionov 47¢ $92 4d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 52¢ $70 4d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 52¢ $17 4d
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Raphael Collignon 53¢ $74 5d
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally BUY Karolina Pliskova 47¢ $74 5d
Parma: Jacopo Vasami vs Buvaysar Gadamauri BUY Jacopo Vasami 58¢ $64 6d
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Joao Lucas Da Silva BUY Joao Lucas Da Silva 57¢ $63 6d
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Yi Zhou 58¢ $64 6d
Figueira Da Foz: Viktoria Hruncakova vs Yeon-Woo Ku BUY Yeon-Woo Ku 52¢ $64 6d
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot BUY Daniel Jade 52¢ $65 6d
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 57¢ $64 6d
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 54¢ $64 6d
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 47¢ $66 6d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 54¢ $38 6d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 48¢ $25 6d
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Sofia Kenin 44¢ $76 7d
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel BUY Arthur Fery 57¢ $74 7d
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 57¢ $74 7d
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 65¢ $61 7d
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 60¢ $61 7d
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Terence Atmane 35¢ $61 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.76 · official $96.76 (match) · 83 history records