Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:25:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72db…af3e crypto 59 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$55 (+10%) realized +$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%13W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$83
14 days+$45
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$50
other 3% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +5.5% -4.5% 14% 14% +59.0%
≤30d 58 -15.1% -23.2% 22% 22% -1.8%
≤90d 58 -15.1% -23.2% 22% 22% -1.8%
all 58 -15.1% -23.2% 22% 22% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 22% -1.8%
10% -30.5% 22% -11.2%
15% -37.3% 21% -19.8%
20% -43.4% 19% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$5 · ×4.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses13 / 45
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage12d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$19 +1775%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$13 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $33 +$84 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$4 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 08 $36 −$11 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$16 +303%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 08 $51 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 08 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 08 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 05 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 05 $26 −$25 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 3h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 9¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 120 history records