Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:16:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72dc…33a8 crypto 542 markets active 0h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$295 (+4%) realized +$318 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%235W / 306L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$163
7 days+$303
14 days+$344
30 days+$172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$117
world 1% +$1
other 0% −$18
economics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 181 -3.1% -12.3% 48% 47% -0.1%
≤30d 518 -11.5% -20.0% 44% 43% -7.0%
≤90d 518 -11.5% -20.0% 44% 43% -7.0%
all 541 -9.6% -18.2% 43% 42% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 42% -7.7%
10% -26.0% 40% -16.5%
15% -33.2% 38% -24.6%
20% -39.7% 33% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$9 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$318
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses235 / 306
Open positions1
Markets (closed)541 / 542
History coverage144d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 541 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Up 55¢ 4¢ $25 $2 −$23 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 259 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$9 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$17 +404%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $205 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$5 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $38 +$20 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $22 +$21 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $53 +$16 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $49 +$65 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $24 +$21 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$10 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $29 +$34 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $23 +$10 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$10 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$16 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$9 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$11 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$7 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $15 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $6 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $19 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $201 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $15 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $36 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $31 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.59 · official $18.02 · 1543 history records