Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:10:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72dd…4ef0 other 153 markets active 1h ago coverage 191d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$617 (-10%) realized −$572 · open −$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate26%40W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$213
14 days+$358
30 days+$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$627
sports 18% −$97
crypto 0% −$16
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +133.5% +111.3% 35% 35% -33.1%
≤30d 60 +46.6% +32.6% 38% 37% -8.0%
≤90d 121 +9.1% -1.3% 31% 28% -16.3%
all 152 -7.0% -15.8% 26% 24% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 24% -21.3%
10% -23.9% 22% -28.8%
15% -31.2% 20% -35.7%
20% -38.0% 18% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$26 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$572
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses40 / 112
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)152 / 153
History coverage191d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 58¢ 28¢ $85 $40 −$45 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 103 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $61 −$32 -53%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $65 +$47 +73%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $71 −$70 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $48 +$110 +227%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $154 −$152 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$54 +106%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $120 +$41 +34%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $61 +$59 +97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $96 +$45 +47%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $100 −$5 -5%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $64 +$42 +66%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $31 −$26 -85%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $23 −$23 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $78 +$35 +44%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $107 −$1 -1%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $97 −$96 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $233 +$186 +80%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 +$30 +146%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $71 +$69 +97%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $21 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $295 +$76 +26%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $157 +$138 +88%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $55 +$80 +145%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 +$51 +100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $85 +$46 +54%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $71 +$14 +20%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 −$3 -44%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $17 −$15 -91%
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $22 −$21 -98%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $197 −$84 -42%
Will Montenegro win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $6 +$1 +10%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $81 +$24 +30%
Will Serbia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $47 −$27 -57%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $15 +$2 +11%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $9 −$9 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $86 35m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 25¢ $27 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $61 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 57¢ $65 27h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $51 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $20 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $157 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 22¢ $28 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 36¢ $82 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $20 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $7 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $147 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 98¢ $103 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 3d
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 3d
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $11 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $120 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $61 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 96¢ $141 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $96 4d
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 68¢ $96 4d
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 70¢ $100 4d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 4d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 96¢ $105 4d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $64 4d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 4d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $23 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.85 · official $40.14 (match) · 249 history records