Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:50:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72de…a5ed world 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,619 (-19%) realized −$5,612 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate19%20W / 85L
Whale WR27%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$261per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$2,607now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$339
7 days+$19
14 days−$948
30 days−$1,374
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% −$3,833
other 9% −$932
crypto 5% −$245
culture 4% −$198
finance 2% −$498
politics 1% −$386
sports 1% +$855
economics 1% −$314
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +27.9% +15.7% 9% 9% -9.1%
≤30d 20 +8.5% -1.8% 20% 20% -26.9%
≤90d 62 -35.1% -41.3% 11% 10% -35.5%
all 105 -21.9% -29.4% 19% 17% -29.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.4% 17% -29.4%
10% -36.1% 15% -36.1%
15% -42.3% 15% -42.3%
20% -48.0% 13% -48.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 27% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -16% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$205 vs −$113 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$2,607
Realized−$5,612
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses20 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)27%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions11
Markets (closed)105 / 116
History coverage266d
Avg bet$261
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $746 $800 +$55 (+7%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $700 $656 −$44 (-6%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 38¢ 37¢ $339 $336 −$3 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $258 $267 +$9 (+3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $107 $95 −$12 (-11%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $75 $92 +$18 (+23%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $99 $83 −$16 (-16%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $80 $82 +$2 (+2%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $60 $51 −$9 (-15%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $92 −$90 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $49 −$47 -97%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $800 −$201 -25%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $2,060 −$188 -9%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $306 −$184 -60%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $103 +$959 +933%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $24 −$6 -23%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $99 −$96 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $102 −$8 -8%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $103 −$100 -98%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $237 −$65 -27%
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by June 30? Jun 09 $178 −$153 -86%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 09 $990 −$749 -76%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 31 $984 −$401 -41%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 28 $563 +$115 +20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $57 +$40 +70%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 25 $303 −$173 -57%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 25 $2 +$2 +68%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 23 $100 −$8 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 21 $192 −$52 -27%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 19 $200 −$7 -4%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 17 $114 −$54 -47%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $104 −$100 -97%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $105 −$36 -34%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $209 −$26 -12%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $105 −$23 -22%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? May 16 $512 −$78 -15%
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $206 −$200 -97%
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30? May 13 $207 −$180 -87%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? May 13 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 11 $400 −$145 -36%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? May 09 $29 −$7 -25%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 01 $100 +$40 +40%
Will Trump say "Iran" during King Charles visit? Apr 30 $153 −$129 -84%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Apr 30 $110 −$43 -39%
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Apr 30 $100 −$27 -27%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Apr 29 $200 −$76 -38%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 29 $994 −$369 -37%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Apr 18 $94 −$94 -100%
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $100 −$65 -65%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Apr 15 $105 −$26 -24%
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Apr 09 $301 −$102 -34%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 09 $100 −$94 -94%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 08 $100 −$90 -90%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $1,174 +$630 +54%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Apr 06 $284 −$284 -100%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $700b and $710b on March 31? Apr 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 25 $100 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6AM ET Mar 24 $100 −$48 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $271 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $68 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $24 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $30 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $13 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $65 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $54 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $41 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $18 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $18 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $18 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $15 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $15 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $15 23h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $62 23h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $82 23h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $72 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 23h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $49 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $28 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $33 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $39 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $11 23h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $477 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 23h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $111 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $855 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,607.22 · official $2,607.22 (match) · 522 history records