Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:02:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

72
0x72df…7e76
other · 163 markets active 6h ago
0.0score
−$29 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$35 · open +$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$51
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses43 / 102
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions18
Markets (closed)145 / 163
History coverage315d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 18 History 145 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$22
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 11¢ 23¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+112%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 53¢ 58¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+10%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 48¢ 62¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+30%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 20¢ 23¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-18%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-46%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 18¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-66%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 50¢ 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 12PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin above $117,000 on August 6? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Israel strike on Gulf State by September 30? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Israel in August? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +172%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 08 $1 $0 +31%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 30 $10 +$24 +245%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of their May 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of their n May 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $7 −$7 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump strikes another drug boat by Sep 30? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia airdrop aid into Gaza? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.0–44.4% on August 8? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $122K July 28–August 3? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Apr 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 15 $5 +$6 +111%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $1 +$1 +140%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-17? Apr 08 $1 $0 +39%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $1 +$5 +525%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 17 $1 +$4 +354%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 17 $1 +$4 +400%
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland Feb 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 18 $3 −$3 -86%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol Feb 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 14 $5 +$2 +32%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Maduro leaves Venezuela by March 31? Jan 03 $1 +$1 +59%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 10 $2 +$3 +156%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 10 $5 +$2 +48%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 5? Dec 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 83% +$53
other 7% −$40
world 4% −$26
sports 3% +$9
politics 3% −$17
culture 0% −$8
finance 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 5h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 5h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 76¢ $1 12d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 12d
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 12d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 12d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 12d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 53¢ $6 12d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 12d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 12d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 12d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 12d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 12d
Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 29d
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 29d
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 29d
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of their BUY Yes 17¢ $1 29d
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of their n BUY Yes 7¢ $1 29d
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o BUY Yes 51¢ $6 29d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 36d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $6 36d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 53d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes 97¢ $11 58d
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 60d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 65d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 65d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 65d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +101.6% +82.4% 100% 100% +82.8%
≤30d 9 -16.9% -24.8% 33% 33% +29.1%
≤90d 38 -23.2% -30.5% 24% 24% -38.5%
all 145 -20.7% -28.3% 30% 30% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.3% 30% -11.2%
10% -35.1% 28% -19.7%
15% -41.4% 24% -27.5%
20% -47.2% 22% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.25 · official $51.25 (match) · 563 history records