Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:16:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

72 0x72e0…08ee other 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 50d

RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$420 (+16%) realized +$396 · open +$24

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +61% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +46% what you keep after slip

Net edge+46%after slip

Net WR55%break-even

Win rate55%11W / 9L

Drawdown55%max

Avg bet$97per market

Trades / day0.6pace

Fees−$12est.

Kalshi-fit48%portable

Net worth$354now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$481

7 days+$902

14 days+$902

30 days+$902

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +55%

net ROI/market (all)+45.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	+78.0%	+61.0%	59%	59%	+67.2%
≤30d	17	+78.0%	+61.0%	59%	59%	+67.2%
≤90d	20	+61.1%	+45.8%	55%	55%	+29.9%
all	20	+61.1%	+45.8%	55%	55%	+29.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+45.8%	55%	+29.9%
10%	+31.8%	55%	+17.4%
15%	+19.1%	55%	+6.1%
20%	+7.4%	50%	-4.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +44% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +61% · $-wt +44% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +60% → late +62% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$160 vs −$96 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.03 per $1 lost it wins $2.03

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage

Net worth$354

Realized+$396

Unrealized+$24

Win rate (resolved)55%

Wins / losses11 / 9

Est. fees paid−$12

Open positions3

Markets (closed)20 / 27

History coverage50d

Avg bet$97

Trades / day0.6

Drawdown55%

Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	9¢	8¢	$200	$165	−$35 (-18%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	48¢	74¢	$100	$153	+$53 (+53%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	12¢	$30	$36	+$6 (+21%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5	Jun 18	$45	+$108	+238%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$153	+$348	+227%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$30	+$32	+105%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia?	Jun 17	$15	−$15	-97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$148	−$144	-98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 17	$30	−$1	-2%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	Jun 17	$15	−$15	-98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 17	$102	+$168	+165%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$60	+$29	+48%
Spread: France (-1.5)	Jun 16	$15	+$21	+140%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$51	+$96	+188%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$51	−$50	-99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	Jun 15	$51	−$50	-99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$51	+$227	+442%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) AND Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	Jun 14	$51	+$133	+261%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$102	+$116	+114%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 12	$101	−$100	-99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	May 06	$497	+$480	+97%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05?	May 04	$201	−$196	-98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29?	Apr 29	$299	−$293	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$102	1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	29¢	$45	7h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Swit	BUY	8¢	$51	11h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY	30¢	$153	28h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	48¢	$30	30h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia?	BUY Yes	12¢	$15	30h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	17¢	$45	30h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	18¢	$102	31h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	SELL Portugal	59¢	$29	31h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Portugal	59¢	$30	33h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	BUY Portugal	30¢	$15	35h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win	BUY	13¢	$51	36h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	37¢	$102	2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$30	2d
Spread: France (-1.5)	BUY France	41¢	$15	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$60	2d
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Will Austria wi	BUY	4¢	$51	2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	55¢	$51	3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	34¢	$51	3d
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	BUY Spain	60¢	$51	3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Spread: Ne	BUY	8¢	$51	4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	18¢	$51	4d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) AND Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	BUY	27¢	$51	5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	100¢	$217	5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	46¢	$102	6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	60¢	$101	6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$205	14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	SELL Yes	47¢	$976	43d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	BUY Yes	23¢	$497	43d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05?	BUY Yes	17¢	$201	45d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $353.87 · official $272.62 · 56 history records