Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:04:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
72 0x72e2…6610 sports 247 markets active 1h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7,963 (+2%) realized +$5,628 · open +$2,335
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate84%194W / 38L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$1,388per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$292est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$22,265now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,329
7 days+$4,437
14 days+$4,500
30 days+$5,584
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$5,065
sports 34% −$2,881
other 18% +$2,397
politics 7% +$3,921
economics 2% −$1,329
finance 1% +$296
culture 0% +$44
crypto 0% +$41
tech 0% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +9.9% -0.5% 86% 49% -1.7%
≤30d 54 +3.6% -6.3% 81% 37% -4.9%
≤90d 186 -0.0% -9.5% 82% 37% -7.7%
all 232 +0.9% -8.7% 84% 36% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 36% -8.1%
10% -17.5% 19% -16.9%
15% -25.5% 9% -24.9%
20% -32.8% 3% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$1,060) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$470 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$22,265
Realized+$5,628
Unrealized+$2,335
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses194 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$292
Open positions13
Markets (closed)232 / 247
History coverage180d
Avg bet$1,388
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 232 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 62¢ 88¢ $5,500 $7,856 +$2,356 (+43%)
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? Yes 87¢ 94¢ $3,045 $3,272 +$227 (+7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1,610 $1,845 +$235 (+15%)
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06? Yes 84¢ 94¢ $1,591 $1,782 +$190 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1,700 $1,375 −$325 (-19%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $1,090 $1,285 +$195 (+18%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $900 $1,155 +$255 (+28%)
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes 86¢ 68¢ $1,284 $1,020 −$264 (-21%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $1,090 $785 −$305 (-28%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $870 $665 −$205 (-24%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $530 $565 +$35 (+7%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $450 $395 −$55 (-12%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $270 $265 −$5 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $5,000 +$35 +1%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,003 +$87 +3%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $304 +$127 +42%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,506 +$195 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,010 +$528 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,006 +$224 +11%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $202 −$200 -99%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $501 −$496 -99%
Michael Olise: 1+ shots Jun 16 $100 +$7 +6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3,006 +$206 +7%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $252 +$81 +32%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $503 +$138 +27%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3,011 +$398 +13%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $505 −$500 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,011 +$553 +55%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2,027 +$1,611 +80%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5,006 +$202 +4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,006 −$1,661 -55%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,005 +$169 +8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,007 +$275 +27%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,002 +$60 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $501 +$42 +8%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,001 +$41 +2%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $501 +$39 +8%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,002 +$62 +6%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $404 +$184 +46%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $503 −$257 -51%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$214 +105%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,007 +$275 +27%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $806 +$289 +36%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $3,035 +$1,068 +35%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $503 +$100 +20%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $302 +$88 +29%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $3,003 +$122 +4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $303 +$132 +44%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $5,005 +$167 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $2,001 +$35 +2%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 04 $1,005 −$139 -14%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $302 +$23 +8%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $3,012 −$52 -2%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $12,000 +$2,101 +18%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Tamara Korpatsch May 29 $2,002 +$70 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $2,509 −$2,500 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries May 29 $203 −$200 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $2,002 +$60 +3%
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Mayar Sherif May 28 $1,001 +$51 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe May 28 $303 +$114 +38%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton May 28 $303 −$300 -99%
Atlanta Dream vs. Minnesota Lynx May 28 $1,001 +$40 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $5,035 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $3,090 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $430 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $3,003 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $304 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $501 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $2,004 7h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-0 BUY 46¢ $102 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,010 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 72¢ $202 22h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $278 22h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Iraq 1¢ $5 23h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 93¢ $501 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 86¢ $502 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,504 24h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 97¢ $2,002 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $252 28h
Michael Olise: 1+ shots BUY Yes 94¢ $100 28h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $1,004 31h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $5,000 32h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 78¢ $503 45h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $3,011 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $505 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 97¢ $1,564 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 62¢ $1,011 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $2,027 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $1,346 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 96¢ $5,006 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $3,006 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 92¢ $2,005 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22,265.17 · official $22,365.17 (match) · 672 history records