Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:33:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
72 0x72e8…66ae other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized −$463 · open +$478
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate77%10W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day58.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$1,752now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$423
crypto 39% −$207
sports 19% +$281
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +7.7% -2.5% 77% 54% -8.7%
≤30d 13 +7.7% -2.5% 77% 54% -8.7%
≤90d 13 +7.7% -2.5% 77% 54% -8.7%
all 13 +7.7% -2.5% 77% 54% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.5% 54% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -11.9% 23% -17.4%
15% -20.4% 15% -25.4%
20% -28.2% 15% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$133 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,752
Realized−$463
Unrealized+$478
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses10 / 3
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions11
Markets (closed)13 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day58.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 34¢ 86¢ $170 $427 +$257 (+151%)
Germany leading at halftime? No 51¢ 100¢ $153 $300 +$147 (+96%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? No 65¢ 100¢ $145 $222 +$78 (+54%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? No 90¢ 100¢ $180 $200 +$20 (+11%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? No 89¢ 100¢ $178 $200 +$22 (+12%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? No 88¢ 89¢ $176 $178 +$2 (+1%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? No 81¢ 69¢ $81 $70 −$12 (-14%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? No 92¢ 100¢ $58 $63 +$5 (+9%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? No 92¢ 97¢ $50 $52 +$3 (+5%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? No 89¢ 72¢ $49 $40 −$9 (-19%)
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? No 87¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $176 +$24 +14%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $176 +$24 +14%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $180 +$20 +11%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $171 +$109 +64%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $183 +$18 +10%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $186 +$14 +8%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 20 $49 +$11 +22%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $187 +$14 +7%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $156 +$45 +29%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $62 +$138 +223%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $172 −$172 -100%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 20 $148 −$148 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $78 −$78 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany leading at halftime? SELL No 57¢ $23 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL No 91¢ $124 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 93¢ $13 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL No 92¢ $147 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL No 88¢ $127 1h
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? BUY No 87¢ $35 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? BUY No 65¢ $146 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $82 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 88¢ $176 2h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 89¢ $170 4h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 89¢ $38 4h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 89¢ $16 4h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 89¢ $78 4h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 89¢ $8 4h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 89¢ $16 4h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 92¢ $21 4h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 89¢ $29 4h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 92¢ $115 4h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 92¢ $33 4h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 92¢ $14 4h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 92¢ $38 4h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 92¢ $112 4h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 92¢ $34 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY No 93¢ $187 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY No 91¢ $183 4h
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY No 82¢ $37 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY No 88¢ $176 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY No 93¢ $186 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $156 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY No 88¢ $0 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,752.41 · official $1,752.42 (match) · 68 history records