Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:31:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72e9…6743 sports 666 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d only
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$202 (+3%) realized +$195 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate50%331W / 331L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day52.4pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days+$63
14 days+$63
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% +$38
sports 29% −$82
crypto 13% +$2
world 10% +$29
politics 9% −$19
economics 5% −$18
tech 1% −$8
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -4.2% -13.3% 43% 29% +2.4%
≤30d 7 -4.2% -13.3% 43% 29% +2.4%
≤90d 662 -4.3% -13.4% 50% 31% -10.4%
all 662 -4.3% -13.4% 50% 31% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 31% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 19% -19.0%
15% -29.2% 12% -26.8%
20% -36.2% 7% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$195
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses331 / 331
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions4
Markets (closed)662 / 666
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day52.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 662 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 49¢ 70¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+44%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 13¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 12¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $188 −$21 -11%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $44 −$1 -1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $62 −$9 -14%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 19 $130 +$108 +83%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? May 16 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Democrats win the Rhode Island Senate race in 2026? May 16 $1 $0 -4%
Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? May 16 $1 $0 -4%
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 16 $1 $0 +42%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? May 16 $3 $0 +3%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 16 $2 +$1 +56%
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota governor race in 2026? May 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele May 16 $123 −$5 -4%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 16 $2 $0 +2%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 23 and May 29? May 16 $2 −$1 -53%
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond? May 16 $10 −$1 -8%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? May 16 $10 −$8 -76%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? May 16 $10 −$1 -7%
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro? May 16 $9 −$5 -53%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 16 $470 −$6 -1%
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond? May 16 $10 $0 -1%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 16 $49 +$4 +9%
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? May 16 $10 $0 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 16 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? May 16 $10 $0 -2%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 16 $10 $0 +0%
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? May 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 16 $20 $0 -0%
Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond? May 16 $30 $0 -0%
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? May 16 $57 +$4 +7%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? May 16 $18 −$4 -22%
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 May 16 $12 +$3 +23%
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? May 16 $17 $0 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 16 $8 −$3 -34%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 16 $15 +$1 +5%
No one announced as next James Bond? May 16 $20 +$1 +4%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 16 $6 +$1 +24%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 16 $160 +$39 +24%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $55 −$3 -5%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $4 $0 +12%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 16 $21 $0 +1%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 16 $5 $0 +3%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? May 16 $31 −$4 -14%
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom May 16 $31 −$15 -48%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 16 $84 +$38 +45%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026? May 16 $10 $0 +2%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? May 16 $131 −$2 -2%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? May 15 $97 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $39 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $40 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 59¢ $40 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 59¢ $40 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 97¢ $40 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 97¢ $40 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 17¢ $18 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 39¢ $14 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $15 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 14¢ $13 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 17¢ $17 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 27¢ $16 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $18 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 29¢ $11 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 37¢ $37 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $40 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $24 30h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 99¢ $24 30h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 74¢ $20 31h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 31h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 93¢ $21 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $20 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 79¢ $20 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.90 · official $31.88 (match) · 3500 history records