Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:39:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
72 0x72ef…f569 world 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$37,956 (+96%) realized +$38,441 · open −$485
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate25%35W / 107L
Whale WR26%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$268per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$136
7 days−$560
14 days−$635
30 days−$2,337
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% +$39,255
other 12% −$977
sports 8% −$163
crypto 1% −$226
politics 1% +$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -16.9% -24.8% 13% 13% -34.1%
≤30d 49 -11.4% -19.9% 14% 12% -43.8%
≤90d 127 +5.2% -4.8% 21% 18% +97.4%
all 142 +20.4% +9.0% 25% 22% +86.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.0% 22% +86.4%
10% -1.5% 21% +68.6%
15% -11.0% 21% +52.3%
20% -19.7% 20% +37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +117% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +105% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 26% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +51% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,710 vs −$200 · ×8.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.79 per $1 lost it wins $2.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$1,166
Realized+$38,441
Unrealized−$485
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses35 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)26%
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions5
Markets (closed)142 / 147
History coverage154d
Avg bet$268
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $461 $413 −$48 (-10%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $260 $353 +$93 (+36%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $605 $291 −$314 (-52%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $100 $71 −$29 (-29%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $225 $39 −$186 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $529 −$187 -35%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $41 +$323 +786%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? Jun 15 $25 −$18 -70%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $92 −$90 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $25 −$15 -59%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $62 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $46 +$191 +414%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$12 -23%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 14 $61 −$50 -82%
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $506 −$505 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $32 +$175 +550%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 13 $72 −$70 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $110 +$190 +172%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 09 $50 −$25 -49%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? Jun 02 $114 −$114 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? Jun 02 $1,001 −$1,001 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? Jun 02 $121 +$5 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 6? Jun 02 $37 −$37 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 01 $158 +$161 +102%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 28 $345 −$247 -72%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $215 −$177 -82%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $350 −$100 -29%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 25 $50 +$517 +1034%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $160 −$160 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $600 −$374 -62%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 23 $500 −$1 -0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20? May 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 19 $177 −$62 -35%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 19 $175 −$48 -27%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 19 $177 −$38 -21%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 18 $109 −$109 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $45 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $144 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 2d
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $7 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? SELL No 95¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? BUY No 95¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,165.57 · official $1,165.57 (match) · 871 history records