Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:16:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72f4…d5a0 other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$57 (-8%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$39
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$40
crypto 7% −$5
sports 4% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -17.7% -25.5% 45% 27% -13.1%
≤30d 16 -17.3% -25.2% 50% 31% -15.3%
≤90d 16 -17.3% -25.2% 50% 31% -15.3%
all 16 -17.3% -25.2% 50% 31% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 31% -15.3%
10% -32.4% 25% -23.4%
15% -38.9% 25% -30.8%
20% -44.9% 19% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -57% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$15 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)16 / 20
History coverage8d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$21 -68%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $36 +$1 +4%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $35 +$21 +60%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +53%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $222 +$11 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 52¢ $9 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $32 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.04 · official $95.04 (match) · 42 history records