Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:13:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72f6…92f3 other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$23 (+8%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%9W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$62
14 days−$30
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$14
crypto 28% −$50
sports 3% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -14.0% -22.2% 54% 46% -34.3%
≤30d 18 +13.5% +2.7% 50% 44% -20.8%
≤90d 18 +13.5% +2.7% 50% 44% -20.8%
all 18 +13.5% +2.7% 50% 44% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.7% 44% -20.8%
10% -7.1% 39% -28.3%
15% -16.1% 39% -35.3%
20% -24.3% 17% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$13 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage11d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 28 $52 −$30 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 28 $23 −$20 -85%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $18 +$16 +89%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $12 +$6 +50%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $8 +$4 +54%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 +$2 +47%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -80%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 $0 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $36 +$17 +46%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -93%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$36 +703%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $23 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 34¢ $35 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $18 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $12 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $8 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $3 4d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 4d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 5d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 36¢ $44 5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 5d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 65¢ $5 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $36 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 6d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $41 7d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 7d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records