Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:44:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
72 0x72f6…75da other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 109d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$20 (+20%) realized +$27 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 109d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$17
sports 32% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +56.6% +41.7% 100% 100% +39.6%
≤30d 3 +56.6% +41.7% 100% 100% +39.6%
≤90d 3 +56.6% +41.7% 100% 100% +39.6%
all 4 +17.4% +6.3% 75% 75% +24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.3% 75% +24.5%
10% -3.9% 75% +12.6%
15% -13.2% 50% +1.7%
20% -21.7% 50% -8.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +54% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.46 per $1 lost it wins $4.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$27
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage109d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 16¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $32 +$16 +52%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$5 +89%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 +$1 +29%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-03? Mar 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $21 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $16 2h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $16 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $32 4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 21h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 42h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 47h
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-03? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.11 · official $43.12 (match) · 10 history records