Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:15:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72f7…6d94 sports 663 markets active 3h ago coverage 206d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 205d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$2,702 (-3%) realized −$2,706 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate55%360W / 291L
Whale WR28%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$9
14 days−$5
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$714
sports 24% −$1,794
tech 20% −$488
economics 14% +$648
world 6% −$1
politics 3% +$216
crypto 0% +$21
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +11.8% +1.2% 61% 53% -14.3%
≤30d 203 +16.6% +5.5% 64% 52% -7.4%
≤90d 529 -4.8% -13.9% 53% 44% -60.8%
all 651 +5.5% -4.6% 55% 47% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 47% -11.3%
10% -13.7% 39% -19.8%
15% -22.0% 32% -27.6%
20% -29.7% 26% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 28% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$48 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

206d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$2,706
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses360 / 291
Whale WR (big bets)28%
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions12
Markets (closed)651 / 663
History coverage206d ⚠
Avg bet$160
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 651 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+8%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 72¢ 88¢ $18 $22 +$4 (+22%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 71¢ 100¢ $11 $16 +$5 (+40%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $12 $9 −$2 (-21%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 92¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 55¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+81%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 89¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 57¢ 71¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes 57¢ 69¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 23¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-76%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 44¢ 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-76%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 31¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 143 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 17 $4 +$5 +118%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 17 $1 $0 +24%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 17 $8 +$1 +14%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 $0 +5%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $1 $0 +23%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$1 +24%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions Jun 16 $3 +$1 +25%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $2 $0 +19%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $2 +$1 +46%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $8 −$7 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $3 +$13 +476%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $3 $0 -0%
Will AS FAR win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $17 −$16 -99%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 14 $3 $0 +14%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 14 $2 +$1 +35%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 14 $9 −$1 -16%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 14 $6 +$6 +110%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz Jun 13 $3 +$1 +52%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 13 $2 +$2 +105%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +29%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $2 +$1 +60%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +71%
Will RCA Zemamra win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +42%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 12 $3 $0 -16%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 12 $1 +$3 +344%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 12 $4 +$1 +31%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -60%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 $0 -2%
Set Handicap: Gagliardo (-1.5) vs Maksimovic (+1.5) Jun 11 $1 +$1 +50%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Lotte Giants Jun 11 $6 −$2 -35%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 11 $5 +$7 +149%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 −$4 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $4 −$1 -30%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $8 −$8 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos SELL NC Dinos 99¢ $7 2h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers SELL Kia Tigers 99¢ $6 2h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY NC Dinos 59¢ $1 3h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY NC Dinos 48¢ $1 3h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers SELL Kia Tigers 57¢ $2 3h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 57¢ $2 3h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers SELL Kia Tigers 58¢ $2 3h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 72¢ $1 3h
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 52¢ $1 3h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY KT Wiz 80¢ $1 4h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY NC Dinos 36¢ $2 4h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 63¢ $1 4h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 73¢ $1 4h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 68¢ $1 4h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 66¢ $1 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 96¢ $3 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 91¢ $3 12h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 81¢ $1 13h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 16h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $6 16h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 79¢ $5 16h
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 91¢ $1 28h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY Doosan Bears 57¢ $2 29h
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 72¢ $2 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $4 34h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 35h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 68¢ $2 36h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $8 36h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 64¢ $1 39h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.21 · official $88.98 · 3500 history records