Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:44:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
72 0x72f8…25fa other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$88 (-2%) realized −$88 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate58%18W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$350now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$94
tech 21% +$13
economics 20% −$3
crypto 17% +$1
weather 3% +$5
culture 1% −$10
politics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.8% -12.0% 78% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 9 -2.8% -12.0% 78% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 24 -16.0% -24.0% 71% 4% -9.4%
all 31 -27.2% -34.2% 58% 6% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.2% 6% -13.1%
10% -40.5% 3% -21.4%
15% -46.2% 3% -29.0%
20% -51.5% 0% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$350
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses18 / 13
Open positions5
Markets (closed)31 / 36
History coverage99d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $130 $130 −$0 (-0%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Jun 20 $6 −$2 -33%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Jun 20 $20 −$2 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 15? Jun 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 15? Jun 20 $2 $0 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 15? Jun 20 $5 $0 +5%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 15? Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 15? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +5%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 20 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15? Jun 20 $252 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15? May 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will "Thrash" be the top US Netflix movie this week? May 15 $1 $0 +7%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 17 May 15 $1 $0 +13%
Will "Thrash" be the top global Netflix movie this week? May 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners May 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will Ana Paula Renault be in the top 3 of Big Brother Brasil 26? May 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 15? May 15 $336 +$4 +1%
Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify lis Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 15 $747 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31? Apr 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on March 28? Apr 15 $112 +$4 +4%
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 15 $150 +$5 +3%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Mar 28 $280 +$3 +1%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-16? Mar 16 $20 $0 -2%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 16 $20 +$8 +41%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-03-14? Mar 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $130 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $100 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $15 1h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $4 1h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House SELL Yes 41¢ $18 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $142 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 36d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $1 36d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $1 36d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 36d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $6 36d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 36d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 36d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $2 36d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 97¢ $50 36d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 44¢ $20 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $110 36d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 36d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $359 36d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $360 36d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $349 36d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $350 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $336 65d
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 17 BUY Yes 88¢ $1 65d
Will "Thrash" be the top US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 65d
Will "Thrash" be the top global Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 65d
Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify lis BUY Yes 96¢ $10 65d
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners BUY Yes 98¢ $10 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $349.76 · official $349.76 (match) · 109 history records