Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:31:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72f8…5734 politics 134 markets active 0h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$539 (+0%) realized +$539 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate28%37W / 96L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$963per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$839now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$7
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$68
other 38% −$104
sports 9% +$737
culture 3% −$5
world 2% −$32
economics 2% −$10
crypto 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 57 +1.8% -7.9% 11% 2% -8.7%
all 133 -2.1% -11.4% 28% 10% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 10% -9.1%
10% -19.9% 10% -17.8%
15% -27.6% 8% -25.8%
20% -34.7% 4% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,413) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$7 · ×4.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$839
Realized+$539
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses37 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage149d
Avg bet$963
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $839 $839 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 27 $279 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $2,013 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $210 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $439 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $283 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $274 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2,587 −$3 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $1,512 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,379 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,529 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $6,612 −$7 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $2,781 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,330 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,835 −$4 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $1,580 −$3 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,647 −$3 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,387 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 02 $455 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $557 +$3 +0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $2,326 −$4 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $409 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $665 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $716 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $1,051 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $818 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $975 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $1,504 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,684 −$2 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $3,255 −$5 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 08 $1,686 −$2 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $3,368 −$4 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $2,914 −$3 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $1,590 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,654 −$2 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $1,519 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 02 $306 +$1 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr May 02 $334 +$1 +0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $996 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $2,250 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 30 $314 +$1 +0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,177 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $1,383 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $1,092 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $1,296 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $2,289 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $2,449 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $2,637 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $279 15m
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $279 1h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $262 5d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $263 6d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $210 6d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $210 6d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $438 7d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $439 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $282 8d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $283 9d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $273 9d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $274 9d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $839 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,304 13d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,305 13d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,510 14d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,512 14d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,378 14d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,379 15d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,527 15d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,529 15d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,487 15d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,489 16d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,213 19d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,215 20d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,328 20d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,330 20d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,457 21d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,459 21d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,577 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $839.19 · official $839.19 (match) · 421 history records