Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:38:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72fc…f823 crypto 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% +$14
other 26% +$1
sports 20% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -14.2% -22.4% 50% 50% +24.0%
≤30d 4 -14.2% -22.4% 50% 50% +24.0%
≤90d 4 -14.2% -22.4% 50% 50% +24.0%
all 4 -14.2% -22.4% 50% 50% +24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 50% +24.0%
10% -29.8% 50% +12.1%
15% -36.6% 50% +1.3%
20% -42.8% 50% -8.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +37% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$5 · ×2.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.52 per $1 lost it wins $2.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)4 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.39 · official $163.39 · 12 history records