Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:54:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72fd…0c29 world 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 525d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate44%36W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$9
politics 21% $0
other 16% +$14
sports 6% −$25
economics 3% $0
crypto 1% −$1
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 43% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 28 +2.0% -7.7% 43% 7% -8.9%
≤90d 68 +0.9% -8.7% 41% 3% -9.2%
all 82 +1.5% -8.2% 44% 11% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 11% -9.6%
10% -17.0% 7% -18.2%
15% -25.0% 5% -26.1%
20% -32.4% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses36 / 46
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)82 / 83
History coverage525d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 93¢ 94¢ $42 $42 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $71 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $42 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $44 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $17 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $57 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $42 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $50 +$2 +4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $101 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $82 −$2 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $42 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $69 +$1 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $93 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 01 $26 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 01 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $69 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $42 +$2 +4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $41 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 28 $38 −$1 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $30 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $39 +$4 +11%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $33 +$1 +3%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $64 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $63 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $27 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 18 $17 $0 +2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $34 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $30 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $29 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $30 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $32 $0 +1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $60 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $37 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $77 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $63 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $33 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $23 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $142 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 18 $44 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $37 +$2 +4%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $95 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $3 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 12 $62 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $42 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $3 26h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $3 27h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 74¢ $13 29h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 74¢ $30 29h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 74¢ $42 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $42 41h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $42 42h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $38 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $15 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $15 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $15 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $7 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $17 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $38 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $42 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $42 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $19 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $0 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.01 · official $42.46 · 302 history records