Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:53:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
73 0x7301…69c4 sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$13 (+7%) realized +$12 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$19
14 days+$9
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$20
crypto 10% −$4
world 9% +$1
politics 2% −$4
other 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +3.7% -6.2% 29% 29% +5.9%
≤30d 11 -4.0% -13.2% 36% 27% -0.7%
≤90d 11 -4.0% -13.2% 36% 27% -0.7%
all 12 -12.0% -20.4% 33% 25% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 25% -2.9%
10% -28.0% 25% -12.2%
15% -35.0% 25% -20.7%
20% -41.3% 25% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$11 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage173d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Under 45¢ 46¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 +$71 +276%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 09 $31 −$30 -97%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $17 +$1 +6%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? May 18 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 05 $4 −$4 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.65 · official $35.65 (match) · 25 history records