Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:27:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
73 0x7302…072f world 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate54%13W / 11L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% +$5
politics 7% $0
sports 7% +$2
other 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.5% -10.0% 50% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 15 -1.0% -10.4% 40% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 15 -1.0% -10.4% 40% 0% -8.7%
all 24 +0.4% -9.2% 54% 4% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 4% -8.3%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.1%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.1%
20% -33.1% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.56 per $1 lost it wins $4.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses13 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage465d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $47 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $38 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $4 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $36 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $46 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $59 +$4 +7%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $1 $0 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $6 −$1 -20%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $1 $0 +3%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 24 $27 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $40 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 20 $2 $0 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Dec 09 $2 $0 +3%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? Jun 26 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 18 $17 $0 +1%
Will Barcelona win La Liga? May 17 $17 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 35-40% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 13 $17 $0 -0%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? May 13 $17 +$2 +13%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 4-10? Mar 10 $17 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $20 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $27 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $47 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $37 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $38 11h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $4 22d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $4 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $12 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $11 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $13 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $36 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $46 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $46 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $23 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $19 23d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes $1 23d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes $1 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 24d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $27 25d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $11 25d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $16 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 58¢ $16 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 58¢ $24 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $34 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 64 history records