trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 9 | +35.0% | +22.1% | 67% | 56% | +39.7% |
| ≤30d | 20 | +35.5% | +22.6% | 75% | 50% | +32.4% |
| ≤90d | 20 | +35.5% | +22.6% | 75% | 50% | +32.4% |
| all | 20 | +35.5% | +22.6% | 75% | 50% | +32.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +22.6% | 50% | +32.4% |
| 10% | +10.8% | 25% | +19.7% |
| 15% | +0.1% | 20% | +8.2% |
| 20% | -9.7% | 20% | -2.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 97¢ | 95¢ | $300 | $296 | −$4 (-1%) |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | No | 68¢ | 68¢ | $250 | $248 | −$2 (-1%) |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 93¢ | $200 | $209 | +$9 (+4%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 22 | $200 | +$281 | +140% |
| Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? | Jun 21 | $30 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 20 | $200 | −$3 | -2% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | Jun 20 | $200 | +$42 | +21% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | Jun 20 | $30 | −$4 | -12% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 19 | $101 | +$15 | +15% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? | Jun 19 | $100 | +$75 | +75% |
| Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? | Jun 18 | $200 | +$302 | +151% |
| Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? | Jun 16 | $100 | −$78 | -78% |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $211 | −$105 | -50% |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $102 | −$7 | -7% |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $101 | +$15 | +15% |
| Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap | Jun 13 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 7? | Jun 11 | $250 | +$13 | +5% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 08 | $300 | +$56 | +19% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? | Jun 01 | $29 | +$4 | +14% |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? | May 29 | $20 | $0 | +1% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | May 28 | $250 | +$10 | +4% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? | May 28 | $200 | +$61 | +30% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | May 27 | $99 | +$409 | +413% |