Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:40:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
73 0x7302…828a world 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 30d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,100 (+31%) realized +$1,097 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate75%15W / 5L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$753now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$282
7 days+$631
14 days+$547
30 days+$1,087
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 79% +$1,175
other 13% −$75
crypto 9% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +35.0% +22.1% 67% 56% +39.7%
≤30d 20 +35.5% +22.6% 75% 50% +32.4%
≤90d 20 +35.5% +22.6% 75% 50% +32.4%
all 20 +35.5% +22.6% 75% 50% +32.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.6% 50% +32.4%
10% +10.8% 25% +19.7%
15% +0.1% 20% +8.2%
20% -9.7% 20% -2.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +49% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$39 · ×2.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.52 per $1 lost it wins $6.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$753
Realized+$1,097
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses15 / 5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)20 / 23
History coverage30d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 97¢ 95¢ $300 $296 −$4 (-1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 68¢ 68¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 93¢ $200 $209 +$9 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 22 $200 +$281 +140%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 21 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $200 −$3 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $200 +$42 +21%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $30 −$4 -12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$15 +15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $100 +$75 +75%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 18 $200 +$302 +151%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $100 −$78 -78%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $211 −$105 -50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$7 -7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 +$15 +15%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 7? Jun 11 $250 +$13 +5%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $300 +$56 +19%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 01 $29 +$4 +14%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 29 $20 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? May 28 $250 +$10 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 28 $200 +$61 +30%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 27 $99 +$409 +413%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $300 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $481 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 68¢ $250 9h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 20¢ $31 38h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $197 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $200 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $200 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $242 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $26 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $200 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $30 2d
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 19¢ $30 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $116 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $175 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 38¢ $100 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $100 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 42¢ $100 4d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $22 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $103 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $201 7d
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $200 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 46¢ $94 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 95¢ $116 9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 9d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 62¢ $31 9d
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 7? SELL No 93¢ $263 11d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $100 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $752.83 · official $752.52 (match) · 46 history records