Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:58:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7303…4a82 other 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 204d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$174 (-33%) realized −$173 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate23%16W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$153
sports 12% −$19
politics 3% −$4
economics 2% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -90.8% -91.7% 0% 0% -90.6%
≤90d 54 -59.1% -63.0% 9% 9% -79.2%
all 69 -14.8% -22.9% 23% 20% -39.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 20% -39.7%
10% -30.3% 17% -45.5%
15% -37.1% 17% -50.7%
20% -43.2% 16% -55.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -77% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +67% → late -95% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$173
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses16 / 53
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)69 / 71
History coverage204d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 25¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
IR Iran leading at halftime? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-2.5) May 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? May 27 $4 −$3 -72%
Spread: FK Shakhtar Donetsk (-2.5) May 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) May 06 $4 −$3 -62%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mazatlán FC win on 2026-03-20? May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Fenerbahçe SK (-2.5) May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-03-21? May 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Magic (-5.5) May 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Boyacá Chicó FC (-1.5) May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw? May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Instituto AC Córdoba win on 2026-03-22? May 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-01-25? May 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-05-02? May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Beşiktaş JK (-2.5) May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? May 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-2.5) May 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2026-03-17? May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Çaykur Rizespor win on 2026-04-17? May 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Alanyaspor vs. Fenerbahçe SK end in a draw? May 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-01-26? May 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-02? May 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-01-23? May 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-08? May 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-01-23? May 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-17? May 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-11-26? May 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-05-02? May 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-02-02? May 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? May 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Clube do Remo win on 2026-03-19? May 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Club Bolívar (-2.5) May 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-01-25? May 05 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Racing Club win on 2026-01-24? May 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-04-30? May 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-01-26? May 05 $40 +$7 +18%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-01-27? May 05 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-01-18? May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs The Huns Esports (BO3) May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-31? May 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Chelsea vs. Arsenal: O/U 3.5 May 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-18? May 05 $40 −$40 -100%
Will FCSB win on 2026-01-29? May 05 $26 −$21 -81%
Will Samsunspor win on 2025-12-05? May 05 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Eyüpspor win on 2026-01-26? May 05 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 05 $2 −$1 -58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 16d
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-2.5) BUY Crystal Palace FC 8¢ $1 19d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 19d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 21d
Spread: FK Shakhtar Donetsk (-2.5) BUY FK Shakhtar Donetsk 1¢ $1 39d
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) BUY FC Bayern München 4¢ $2 40d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) SELL Paris Saint-Germain FC 4¢ $2 40d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 10¢ $4 40d
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 41d
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 41d
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) SELL Arsenal FC 7¢ $1 41d
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) BUY Arsenal FC 16¢ $2 41d
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 44d
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-05-02? SELL Yes 48¢ $7 44d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 44d
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 44d
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 44d
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-02? SELL Yes 83¢ $13 44d
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 44d
Spread: Club Bolívar (-2.5) BUY Club Bolívar 10¢ $5 46d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 46d
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-30? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 46d
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-30? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 46d
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-04-30? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 46d
Will Çaykur Rizespor win on 2026-04-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 59d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 69d
Spread: Beşiktaş JK (-2.5) BUY Beşiktaş JK 6¢ $1 71d
Spread: Fenerbahçe SK (-2.5) BUY Fenerbahçe SK 10¢ $1 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.22 · official $1.22 (match) · 144 history records