Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:58:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x730a…51a0 other 149 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 39d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (81 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7,931 (+4%) realized +$7,927 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate53%72W / 64L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$1,270per market
Trades / day80.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$2,873now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 39d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$1,164
crypto 25% +$1,182
finance 21% +$181
other 8% −$1,610
politics 3% +$46
sports 0% +$110
tech 0% +$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (81 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -3.0% -12.2% 42% 35% -11.0%
≤30d 127 -0.2% -9.7% 53% 32% -9.1%
≤90d 136 +2.0% -7.8% 53% 34% -9.0%
all 136 +2.0% -7.8% 53% 34% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 34% -9.0%
10% -16.6% 21% -17.7%
15% ← realistic here -24.6% 17% -25.6%
20% -32.0% 12% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$837) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
14.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$96 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$2,873
Realized+$7,927
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses72 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions14
Markets (closed)136 / 149
History coverage39d ⚠
Avg bet$1,270
Trades / day80.6
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $744 $742 −$2 (-0%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $735 $723 −$12 (-2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $565 $560 −$5 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $156 $161 +$5 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $117 $146 +$29 (+25%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $111 $105 −$6 (-5%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $56 $54 −$2 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $55 $50 −$4 (-8%)
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? Jun 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $278 +$120 +43%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3,637 −$2,358 -65%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $128 −$7 -6%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $136 −$2 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 23 $110 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Jun 23 $6 −$2 -39%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? Jun 23 $150 −$30 -20%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $512 +$301 +59%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $837 +$174 +21%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $10 $0 -5%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? Jun 23 $0 $0 +50%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $202 +$115 +57%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$131 +129%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,460 +$237 +10%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $248 −$133 -54%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $73 +$3 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $6,699 −$358 -5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 22 $83 −$37 -44%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $6,630 −$77 -1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $202 +$118 +58%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 22 $31 −$15 -48%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 22 $3,586 −$142 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $81 +$13 +15%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $350 −$9 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 22 $23,857 −$298 -1%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $212 +$129 +61%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $363 +$74 +20%
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? Jun 22 $79 −$11 -14%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $155 +$32 +20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 21 $1,011 −$9 -1%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $602 +$71 +12%
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $865 +$10 +1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $222 +$104 +47%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $6 −$3 -62%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $202 +$97 +48%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $43 −$24 -56%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 20 $442 −$44 -10%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 20 $334 −$51 -15%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $203 +$145 +72%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $301 −$300 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Jun 20 $5 $0 +3%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 34m
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $268 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 26¢ $1,279 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 51¢ $124 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $121 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 54¢ $54 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 57¢ $114 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $290 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $134 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $22 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 67¢ $306 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $655 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 75¢ $14 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 75¢ $4 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 75¢ $4 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 75¢ $8 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 75¢ $15 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 75¢ $4 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 75¢ $9 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 75¢ $90 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 76¢ $152 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 77¢ $46 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 77¢ $16 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 77¢ $27 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 77¢ $33 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 77¢ $28 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 79¢ $118 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 79¢ $158 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,873.38 · official $2,873.38 (match) · 3500 history records