Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:07:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x730a…2710 crypto 52 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (191 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$201 (+5%) realized +$232 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate65%33W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day191.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$478
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (191 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +14.3% +3.4% 65% 63% +2.6%
≤30d 51 +14.3% +3.4% 65% 63% +2.6%
≤90d 51 +14.3% +3.4% 65% 63% +2.6%
all 51 +14.3% +3.4% 65% 63% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover191.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.4% 63% +2.6%
10% ← realistic here -6.5% 59% -7.2%
15% -15.5% 53% -16.1%
20% -23.8% 49% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$75 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized+$232
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses33 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage1d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day191.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Up 18¢ 14¢ $150 $119 −$31 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $409 +$162 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $104 +$94 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $130 +$92 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $104 +$98 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $78 +$84 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $49 −$46 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$25 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$34 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $37 −$36 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $414 −$414 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $206 −$206 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $206 +$166 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $104 +$103 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $206 +$160 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $114 −$110 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $114 +$87 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $114 +$90 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 18 $145 +$91 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$44 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$54 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$41 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $42 +$45 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $62 +$45 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $42 +$43 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$27 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$32 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$13 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $41 +$43 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $8 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $53 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $105 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $240 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $331 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $198 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $222 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $161 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $52 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $6 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $21 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $21 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $46 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $21 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.81 · official $176.17 · 220 history records