Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:12:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x730b…a225 world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate41%12W / 17L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$1
other 44% +$1
politics 5% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 15 +0.9% -8.7% 27% 7% -9.2%
≤90d 15 +0.9% -8.7% 27% 7% -9.2%
all 29 +0.9% -8.7% 41% 7% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 7% -9.2%
10% -17.4% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.68 per $1 lost it wins $2.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses12 / 17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage464d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 48¢ 48¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 50¢ 52¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $52 +$1 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $16 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $73 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $8 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $69 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $64 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 01 $32 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $34 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $15 +$2 +12%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $1 $0 +3%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 28 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 -7%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jun-seok endorse Kim Moon-soo? Jun 04 $1 $0 +11%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Apr 07 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 06 $12 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Apr 05 $12 $0 +0%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Apr 02 $12 $0 +3%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Mar 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $3 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 700 or more times March 14-21? Mar 22 $12 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $34 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 60¢ $2 21h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 29h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 38h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 38h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 40h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $31 45h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $31 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 50¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 50¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 50¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 50¢ $5 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $16 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $16 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $36 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $36 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $37 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $37 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $36 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $36 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $26 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $10 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $36 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $8 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $8 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $7 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $3 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.79 · official $33.60 (match) · 96 history records