Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:45:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x730d…d448 world 91 markets active 0h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13,476 (+3%) realized +$10,257 · open +$3,219
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate75%52W / 17L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$4,344per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$57,144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$415
7 days+$1,305
14 days+$1,582
30 days+$2,789
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$10,530
other 21% +$768
crypto 12% +$469
politics 8% +$589
sports 2% +$146
finance 1% −$208
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 67% 17% -1.4%
≤30d 16 +4.9% -5.1% 88% 25% -6.6%
≤90d 51 -2.1% -11.4% 80% 25% -6.2%
all 69 -3.3% -12.5% 75% 19% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 19% -6.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 6% -15.8%
15% -28.5% 0% -24.0%
20% -35.5% 0% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$4,910) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$207 vs −$101 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.3 per $1 lost it wins $6.3
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$57,144
Realized+$10,257
Unrealized+$3,219
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses52 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions22
Markets (closed)69 / 91
History coverage124d
Avg bet$4,344
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $14,331 $15,161 +$830 (+6%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $7,763 $7,932 +$169 (+2%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 96¢ 98¢ $4,775 $4,922 +$147 (+3%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 90¢ 92¢ $4,523 $4,622 +$99 (+2%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 97¢ 99¢ $4,247 $4,322 +$76 (+2%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No 85¢ 96¢ $2,651 $2,973 +$321 (+12%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 64¢ 84¢ $2,070 $2,715 +$645 (+31%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 76¢ 99¢ $2,050 $2,668 +$617 (+30%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $2,000 $2,100 +$100 (+5%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 80¢ 88¢ $1,597 $1,744 +$147 (+9%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 67¢ 84¢ $1,005 $1,253 +$248 (+25%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 94¢ 99¢ $1,181 $1,240 +$59 (+5%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $1,170 $1,192 +$22 (+2%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 89¢ 90¢ $1,109 $1,129 +$21 (+2%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 98¢ $900 $917 +$17 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 90¢ $890 $896 +$6 (+1%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 69¢ $840 $695 −$145 (-17%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 79¢ 89¢ $187 $212 +$24 (+13%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 76¢ $164 $164 +$0 (+0%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 33¢ 16¢ $330 $155 −$175 (-53%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 81¢ 81¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $4,100 +$400 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $472 +$15 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $4,392 +$1,286 +29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $3,000 +$40 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,530 −$51 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $996 −$385 -39%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 08 $44,724 +$276 +1%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 02 $260 +$11 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 02 $637 +$113 +18%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 02 $920 +$80 +9%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 02 $971 +$29 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $5,050 +$291 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 02 $1,800 +$200 +11%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 02 $16,660 +$340 +2%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 29 $512 +$112 +22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 20 $1,219 +$31 +3%
Will Trump Insult Xi this week? May 14 $62 −$59 -96%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 May 04 $2,241 −$208 -9%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by April 30, 2026? May 02 $242 +$4 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap May 02 $1,800 +$60 +3%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? May 02 $3,017 +$183 +6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 02 $5,156 +$240 +5%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 02 $3,900 +$100 +3%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? May 02 $4,910 +$90 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 26, 2026? May 01 $83 +$17 +20%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $29,870 +$130 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 29, 2026? Apr 30 $89 +$11 +12%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $86 +$14 +16%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th? Apr 28 $1,231 +$19 +2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 28 $6,579 +$171 +3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $89 +$11 +12%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Apr 24 $7,691 +$62 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 28, 2026? Apr 24 $88 −$88 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $1,768 +$32 +2%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 23 $3,451 +$49 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 23 $4,980 +$20 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 21 $696 −$360 -52%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $920 +$30 +3%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Apr 10 $1,650 +$225 +14%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 05 $7,778 +$966 +12%
Will France strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $158 +$50 +32%
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $577 −$6 -1%
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31? Apr 01 $1,632 +$168 +10%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $3,383 +$1,017 +30%
Will UK strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $3,677 +$947 +26%
Will Canada strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $12,484 +$292 +2%
Will Germany strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $14,546 +$1,241 +8%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Mar 28 $510 −$140 -28%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Mar 26 $310 −$310 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 23 $365 −$20 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $3 3m
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $31 10m
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $3 27m
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $43 37m
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $3 38m
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 41m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $53 46m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $89 46m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $81 46m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $670 46m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 89¢ $1,109 48m
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $31 52m
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $23 54m
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 96¢ $60 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 96¢ $93 1h
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? BUY No 81¢ $42 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 96¢ $44 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 96¢ $493 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $27 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 96¢ $211 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $1,657 30h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $88 30h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $95 30h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $1 31h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $7 31h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $5 32h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $5 32h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $176 32h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $7 32h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $5 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57,144.41 · official $57,144.51 (match) · 858 history records