Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:28:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
73 0x730d…273c sports 97 markets active 2h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$232 (+20%) realized +$231 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%48W / 42L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$137
7 days+$189
14 days+$189
30 days+$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$158
other 45% +$72
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +32.3% +19.7% 61% 61% +17.8%
≤30d 45 +31.8% +19.2% 60% 60% +15.7%
≤90d 66 +23.1% +11.3% 53% 53% +13.5%
all 90 +16.6% +5.5% 53% 53% +11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.5% 53% +11.7%
10% -4.6% 47% +1.0%
15% -13.8% 42% -8.8%
20% -22.2% 32% -17.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +32% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$173
Realized+$231
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses48 / 42
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions7
Markets (closed)90 / 97
History coverage176d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-2%)
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Team Liquid 85¢ 100¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+18%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-3%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 29 $25 +$4 +14%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $57 +$40 +70%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 28 $20 +$2 +11%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $32 +$36 +109%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $23 +$21 +90%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $12 +$36 +291%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $44 +$27 +62%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 +$16 +158%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 +$24 +238%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$14 +70%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $28 +$18 +65%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $4 +$12 +291%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $12 +$16 +129%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $16 +$5 +32%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $18 +$7 +40%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $12 +$7 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $14 +$7 +50%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 24 $4 +$24 +596%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$8 +55%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$7 +46%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 22 $10 +$7 +65%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $5 +$5 +101%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 03 $5 +$11 +206%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 12 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 12 $30 +$8 +26%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 28 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Oh My God (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Apr 23 $1 +$1 +134%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 23 $3 +$5 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 27¢ $25 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $29 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $16 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $22 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $57 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Team Liquid 85¢ $20 18h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 87¢ $25 18h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 90¢ $20 29h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $29 29h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $57 29h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 2d
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 2d
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 2d
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 2d
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 2d
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 2d
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $16 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 2d
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $16 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.01 · official $173.01 (match) · 153 history records