Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:07:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

73
0x730e…e632
politics · 43 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$13 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$13 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$28
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses7 / 35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage294d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 1 History 42 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 87¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $31 −$4 -12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $33 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $31 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $31 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $11 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $14 −$1 -5%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 23 $29 −$3 -10%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $9 $0 -3%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $8 −$1 -13%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 15? Oct 23 $8 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 21 $39 −$2 -6%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 06 $0 $0 -11%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 02 $34 −$1 -3%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Oct 02 $1 $0 -12%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 02 $1 $0 -5%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 01 $33 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $8 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 28 $15 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Zuriel Oduwole win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Aug 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 23 $8 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31? Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 22 $39 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 31% −$4
other 22% −$7
politics 19% −$1
culture 8% −$1
sports 7% $0
economics 5% $0
finance 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $28 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $3 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $24 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $31 45h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $9 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $9 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $31 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $3 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $33 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $31 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $31 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $30 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $31 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $11 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $9 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 37¢ $13 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $14 5d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $27 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $32 6d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 85¢ $26 171d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 93¢ $8 205d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 96¢ $9 231d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $8 231d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $8 231d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? SELL No 98¢ $8 231d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? BUY No 97¢ $8 232d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 15? SELL Yes 98¢ $8 232d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.3% -11.6% 12% 0% -11.7%
≤30d 8 -2.3% -11.6% 12% 0% -11.7%
≤90d 8 -2.3% -11.6% 12% 0% -11.7%
all 42 -2.0% -11.3% 17% 0% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 0% -11.5%
10% -19.8% 0% -20.0%
15% -27.5% 0% -27.7%
20% -34.6% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.92 · official $27.92 (match) · 119 history records