Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:45:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x730f…e021 world 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 541d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate30%24W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days−$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$7
other 18% −$1
politics 15% $0
sports 15% −$12
finance 2% $0
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.3% -9.2% 43% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 27 +0.1% -9.4% 41% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 76 +0.2% -9.3% 32% 3% -9.4%
all 80 -2.8% -12.1% 30% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 2% -9.7%
10% -20.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

541d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses24 / 56
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)80 / 82
History coverage541d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $85 +$4 +4%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $4 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $44 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $44 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $1 $0 -16%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $3 $0 +9%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $49 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $138 −$3 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $22 −$1 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 10 $102 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $29 +$1 +5%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $46 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $200 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $3 $0 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $18 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $38 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $5 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $66 −$3 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $49 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $54 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $14 +$1 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $16 +$2 +12%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $89 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $42 +$6 +14%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 20 $43 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $43 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $39 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $12 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 16 $86 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 15 $2 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $40 $0 -1%
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? May 11 $14 $0 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 11 $40 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 10 $44 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 09 $40 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $186 −$2 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $45 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $57 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $41 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $51 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 51¢ $15 14h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 51¢ $20 14h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 54¢ $22 18h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 54¢ $16 18h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 46¢ $53 20h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 41¢ $48 23h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $48 26h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $24 28h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $24 28h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 39h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 39h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 40h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $13 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $13 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $9 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $35 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $44 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $44 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $27 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $27 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $14 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $31 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $44 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $7 8d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $7 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 21¢ $1 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 25¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.38 · official $51.25 (match) · 358 history records