Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:20:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x730f…bf0a sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-17%) realized −$7 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$1
other 41% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-39.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -32.7% -39.2% 38% 38% -27.0%
≤30d 8 -32.7% -39.2% 38% 38% -27.0%
≤90d 8 -32.7% -39.2% 38% 38% -27.0%
all 8 -32.7% -39.2% 38% 38% -27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.2% 38% -27.0%
10% -45.0% 38% -34.0%
15% -50.3% 38% -40.3%
20% -55.2% 25% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)8 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Yes 12¢ 100¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+733%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Over 48¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+108%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 66¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+51%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Uruguay leading at halftime? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 +$1 +109%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 +$2 +83%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +46%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $1 1h
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $1 3h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $1 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $1 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.93 · official $11.93 (match) · 18 history records