Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:00:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7310…e776 crypto 98 markets active 0h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,484 (+2%) realized +$2,462 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate86%83W / 13L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$1,094per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1,936now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days−$227
14 days−$159
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% +$2,622
finance 13% −$6
weather 4% +$36
tech 4% +$32
world 3% +$169
other 2% −$435
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -9.6% -18.2% 67% 17% -34.6%
≤30d 12 -1.5% -10.9% 83% 17% -10.1%
≤90d 17 +0.9% -8.7% 88% 24% -9.5%
all 96 -0.1% -9.6% 86% 17% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 17% -7.4%
10% -18.2% 7% -16.3%
15% -26.1% 3% -24.4%
20% -33.4% 2% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,873) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$120 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.54 per $1 lost it wins $2.54
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$1,936
Realized+$2,462
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses83 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)96 / 98
History coverage175d
Avg bet$1,094
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 93¢ 95¢ $1,884 $1,909 +$25 (+1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 45¢ 40¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kylian Mbappe score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $47 +$4 +10%
Will Kylian Mbappe score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $200 +$10 +5%
Will Kylian Mbappe score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $49 +$14 +28%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $271 −$253 -93%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $49 −$4 -7%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $205 +$1 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $250 +$29 +12%
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $1,183 +$39 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $1,443 +$67 +5%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $205 +$4 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $273 +$25 +9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $400 +$33 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12PM ET May 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1PM ET May 06 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12PM ET May 06 $495 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7AM ET May 06 $50 +$7 +14%
Will Google reach $400 in April? Apr 30 $258 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10AM ET Feb 16 $3,400 +$30 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 2PM ET Feb 03 $3,857 +$8 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 12PM ET Feb 03 $3,847 +$11 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 10AM ET Feb 03 $3,651 +$4 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 29, 1PM ET Jan 29 $1,486 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 6AM ET Jan 29 $3,149 +$31 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 29, 6AM ET Jan 29 $35 +$1 +3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 15? Jan 29 $3,403 +$24 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 11? Jan 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on Ja Jan 29 $87 −$87 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 8? Jan 29 $337 −$178 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 3PM ET Jan 28 $3,747 +$51 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 1PM ET Jan 28 $3,741 +$6 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 12PM ET Jan 28 $1,000 +$19 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 9AM ET Jan 28 $91 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 9AM ET Jan 28 $3,577 +$52 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 3PM ET Jan 22 $2,695 +$26 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,200 and $3,300 on January 21? Jan 21 $44 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2,900 on January 21? Jan 21 $48 +$6 +13%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 21? Jan 21 $3,190 +$29 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 21? Jan 21 $265 +$60 +22%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 20? Jan 20 $1,883 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,200 and $3,300 on January 20? Jan 20 $296 +$6 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 20? Jan 20 $3,178 +$57 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 19? Jan 19 $3,450 +$26 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 January 12-18? Jan 19 $265 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,300 and $3,400 on January 18? Jan 18 $1,873 +$13 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,200 and $3,300 on January 18? Jan 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,300 and $3,400 on January 16? Jan 16 $733 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,300 and $3,400 on January 15? Jan 15 $1,536 +$182 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 15? Jan 15 $1,649 +$32 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 14? Jan 14 $3,181 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 14? Jan 14 $983 +$7 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $903 11m
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $774 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 93¢ $63 14h
Will Kylian Mbappe score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $88 15h
Will Kylian Mbappe score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 15h
Will Kylian Mbappe score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $93 15h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 6¢ $15 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 95¢ $45 3d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 65¢ $17 3d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 65¢ $28 3d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $34 3d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 85¢ $176 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 3d
Will Kylian Mbappe score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 91¢ $47 5d
Will Kylian Mbappe score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $49 5d
Will Kylian Mbappe score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 95¢ $200 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $30 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 100¢ $205 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 97¢ $16 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 97¢ $72 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 97¢ $36 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 97¢ $72 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 97¢ $4 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 5d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 91¢ $53 6d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $259 7d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,935.61 · official $1,935.61 (match) · 863 history records