Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:47:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7315…aa69 other 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 200d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,072 (-18%) realized −$1,012 · open −$60
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate49%34W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$2,251now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$582
7 days−$542
14 days−$542
30 days−$525
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$565
world 24% −$1,180
crypto 7% +$6
sports 7% +$76
politics 1% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +39.6% +26.3% 75% 75% -37.7%
≤30d 6 +17.2% +6.0% 67% 67% -33.8%
≤90d 16 +26.1% +14.1% 88% 69% -26.6%
all 70 +19.1% +7.8% 49% 41% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.8% 41% -21.4%
10% -2.5% 37% -28.9%
15% -11.9% 27% -35.8%
20% -20.6% 21% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$44 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$2,251
Realized−$1,012
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses34 / 36
Open positions12
Markets (closed)70 / 85
History coverage200d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $520 $500 −$20 (-4%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $388 −$112 (-22%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $360 $310 −$50 (-14%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $320 $290 −$30 (-9%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 24¢ $112 $176 +$64 (+57%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $110 $174 +$64 (+58%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 75¢ 70¢ $185 $174 −$11 (-6%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 34¢ 74¢ $51 $112 +$61 (+119%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $104 $111 +$7 (+7%)
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? No 82¢ 75¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-9%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $23 $3 −$20 (-88%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12 $2 −$10 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $204 +$46 +23%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $234 +$483 +206%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $180 +$53 +29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,124 −$1,124 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 27 $56 −$55 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 26 $160 +$72 +45%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? May 21 $13 +$4 +30%
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? May 21 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 21 $57 +$16 +29%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? May 20 $87 +$7 +8%
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? May 20 $33 +$10 +29%
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? May 20 $16 +$2 +14%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $5 $0 +9%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? May 17 $42 +$18 +43%
Prince Andrew charged by March 31? Apr 18 $20 +$19 +96%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Apr 18 $33 +$17 +52%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 26 $16 +$6 +41%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 24 $15 +$5 +37%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 23 $17 +$5 +32%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 22 $16 +$4 +24%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 21 $17 +$3 +16%
Men's Quarterfinals - Canada vs. Czechia Feb 18 $243 +$27 +11%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Feb 15 $22 −$22 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Feb 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 23 $74 +$38 +51%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jan 22 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Xavi Hernandez be the next Chelsea manager? Jan 19 $342 +$30 +9%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 20 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 09 $4 −$1 -25%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 09 $5 $0 +10%
Suns vs. Timberwolves Dec 09 $4 +$14 +354%
Texans vs. Chiefs Dec 08 $5 +$10 +194%
Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-12-07? Dec 08 $3 +$34 +1011%
Thunder vs. Jazz Dec 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trabzonspor win on 2025-12-07? Dec 07 $8 +$20 +245%
LAR vs. Cardinals Dec 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Arouca win on 2025-12-07? Dec 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Warriors vs. Cavaliers Dec 07 $2 +$8 +317%
Kings vs. Heat Dec 07 $2 +$8 +335%
Will Real Madrid vs. Celta Vigo end in a draw? Dec 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CD Tondela win on 2025-12-07? Dec 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Will CD Nacional win on 2025-12-07? Dec 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Bucks vs. Pistons Dec 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim win on 2025-12-06? Dec 06 $2 +$9 +400%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. PEC Zwolle end in a draw? Dec 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Fortuna Sittard win on 2025-12-06? Dec 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Union Berlin win on 2025-12-06? Dec 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Hornets vs. Raptors Dec 06 $3 +$9 +245%
Will Newcastle vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? Dec 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $52 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $204 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 30¢ $77 18h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 20¢ $154 18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 32¢ $234 42h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $233 42h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $112 4d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $113 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $107 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $800 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $33 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $84 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $37 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 6d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $320 6d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $500 6d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $55 6d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 6d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,250.75 · official $2,466.00 · 507 history records