Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:41:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7317…3e44 world 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 456d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate38%10W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% +$1
other 13% $0
politics 1% $0
sports 1% $0
tech 1% −$1
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -0.3% -9.8% 38% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 17 -0.3% -9.8% 35% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 17 -0.3% -9.8% 35% 0% -9.4%
all 26 -7.4% -16.2% 38% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -24.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -31.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -38.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

456d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses10 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage456d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $50 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 20 $67 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $16 −$1 -6%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $4 $0 +6%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $1 $0 +2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $45 +$1 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $3 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $85 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $98 +$2 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $14 −$2 -11%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $121 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $27 +$2 +6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $79 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $44 −$1 -3%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Dec 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Jun 27 $5 $0 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 16? May 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Apr 22 $2 $0 +6%
Will 2 QBs get taken in the first 3 picks of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 21 $8 $0 -3%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 19 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 27 $11 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $49 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $50 2h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $12 10h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $19 10h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $15 13h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $16 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $15 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $16 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 32h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 43h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 45h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $5 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $12 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $29 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $45 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $0 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $0 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $42 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $42 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $15 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $20 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $34 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $43 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $43 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $36 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $36 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records