Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:13:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

73
0x7319…0299
world · 307 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
+$4,426 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4,269 · open +$12
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$393
Realized+$4,269
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses137 / 163
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$148
Open positions7
Markets (closed)300 / 307
History coverage303d
Avg bet$406
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 7 History 300 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$67
7 days+$1,340
14 days+$1,209
30 days+$351
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $347 $377 +$30 (+9%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $16 $7 −$8 (-54%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+29%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $12 $3 −$9 (-73%)
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-71%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $73 $0 −$73 (-100%)
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in May? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? No 49¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 12 $232 −$115 -50%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 12 $37 +$2 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $25 +$17 +67%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $26 +$30 +117%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $22 +$29 +133%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? Jun 09 $5 $0 -8%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $53 −$1 -2%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $24 −$24 -100%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $2,078 +$1,404 +68%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -50%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary before 2027? Jun 01 $10 −$2 -22%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027? Jun 01 $80 +$25 +31%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? May 31 $289 −$125 -43%
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by May 31? May 31 $10 −$5 -47%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? May 31 $0 $0 -93%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? May 31 $21 −$20 -99%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? May 31 $3 −$3 -99%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 26 $2,073 −$1,040 -50%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 25 $665 +$198 +30%
Will 0 world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games? May 25 $568 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 25 $69 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 23 $713 −$24 -3%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of their n May 13 $4 +$2 +37%
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit? May 13 $84 +$6 +7%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? May 12 $145 +$12 +8%
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2026? May 12 $11 $0 +2%
Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in May? May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? May 08 $1 +$2 +237%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? May 08 $318 +$94 +30%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 08 $4,747 −$1,344 -28%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 08 $1,097 +$626 +57%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 06 $104 −$18 -17%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 01 $1,153 −$686 -60%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027? Apr 28 $50 −$1 -2%
Clavicular unbanned from Youtube by April 30? Apr 28 $10 −$7 -74%
Will Donald Trump's tie be red on April 24, 2026? Apr 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by April 30? Apr 25 $294 −$2 -1%
Will Trump talk to Masoud Pezeshkian in April? Apr 25 $55 −$48 -86%
Will Donald Trump's tie be blue on April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $517 −$468 -90%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? Apr 24 $1,076 −$650 -60%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $227 +$38 +17%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $4 +$1 +30%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 20 $315 +$85 +27%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 20 $3,210 +$1,368 +43%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 18 $250 +$120 +48%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 17 $256 +$118 +46%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 17 $682 +$369 +54%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? Apr 16 $426 +$139 +33%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026? Apr 15 $21 −$10 -45%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $395 +$4 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 52% +$7,483
politics 31% −$3,424
other 11% −$1,407
crypto 3% +$90
sports 3% +$1,441
tech 0% +$82
economics 0% $0
finance 0% +$17
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 7m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 5¢ $14 7m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $42 10m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 6¢ $26 14m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 5¢ $33 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $25 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $276 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $43 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $27 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $466 15h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $21 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 31h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $15 31h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $15 31h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $26 39h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $28 47h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2d
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 11¢ $52 3d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $49 3d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $4 3d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $24 3d
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? BUY Yes 42¢ $22 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +25.5% +13.5% 56% 44% +38.9%
≤30d 24 -9.7% -18.3% 42% 29% -4.1%
≤90d 120 -33.1% -39.5% 33% 24% -8.1%
all 300 -11.4% -19.9% 46% 29% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 29% -6.3%
10% -27.5% 22% -15.3%
15% -34.5% 17% -23.5%
20% -40.9% 10% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $392.77 · official $392.77 (match) · 3500 history records