Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:31:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
73 0x731a…04bd other 653 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 148d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,038 (+1%) realized +$5,025 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%633W / 18L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$594per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$1,434now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$115
7 days+$183
14 days+$735
30 days+$1,643
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% +$1,958
finance 30% +$1,157
tech 25% +$1,188
crypto 4% +$255
sports 4% +$110
world 3% +$21
economics 0% +$5
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +0.9% -8.7% 94% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 166 +0.9% -8.7% 96% 2% -7.8%
≤90d 409 +0.6% -9.0% 97% 1% -8.5%
all 651 +0.7% -8.8% 97% 1% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 1% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 0% -17.2%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.2%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$647) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$16 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×16.8 per $1 lost it wins $16.8
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$1,434
Realized+$5,025
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses633 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)651 / 653
History coverage148d ⚠
Avg bet$594
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 651 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 18? Up 99¢ 100¢ $1,312 $1,324 +$13 (+1%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 99¢ $109 $109 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Micron (MU) close at $900-$920 on the final day of trading of the Jun 18 $29 +$1 +2%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $146 +$1 +1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $2,993 +$77 +3%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $140 +$1 +1%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $55 +$1 +1%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $182 +$2 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? Jun 18 $2,409 −$24 -1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 18 $0 $0 -5%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? Jun 17 $2,014 +$12 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $109 +$1 +1%
Micron (MU) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 17? Jun 17 $475 +$17 +4%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $256 +$4 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 16? Jun 16 $554 +$6 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 16? Jun 16 $353 +$7 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 16? Jun 16 $517 +$6 +1%
Micron (MU) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $17 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 16? Jun 16 $656 +$50 +8%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $3,697 +$22 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 15? Jun 15 $572 +$6 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 15? Jun 15 $78 +$2 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 15? Jun 15 $52 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15? Jun 15 $697 +$2 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 15? Jun 15 $516 +$6 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 15? Jun 15 $116 +$1 +1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $381 +$3 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $950 −$95 -10%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $600 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $402 +$3 +1%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $137.50 Week of June 8 202 Jun 12 $108 +$2 +2%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $420 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $96 +$1 +1%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $530 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $97.50 Week of June 8 2 Jun 12 $284 +$6 +2%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $427.50 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $147.50 Week of June 8 202 Jun 12 $80 +$1 +1%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $145 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $31 $0 +1%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $142.50 Week of June 8 202 Jun 12 $63 +$1 +1%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $256 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $191 +$2 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 8 above $215? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 8 above $210? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 8 above $200? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $212 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 8 above $195? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $1,955 +$46 +2%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $454 +$4 +1%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $309 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 99¢ $990 1h
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 99¢ $322 1h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 99¢ $182 1h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 99¢ $146 1h
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 99¢ $55 1h
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 99¢ $140 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 99¢ $275 2h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY No 99¢ $17 2h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY No 99¢ $6 2h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY No 99¢ $54 2h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY No 99¢ $32 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 99¢ $8 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 97¢ $289 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 97¢ $874 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 97¢ $132 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 99¢ $23 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 99¢ $5 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 97¢ $450 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 99¢ $272 3h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 97¢ $486 3h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 99¢ $5 3h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 99¢ $10 3h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 99¢ $5 3h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 99¢ $9 3h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 99¢ $6 3h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 99¢ $183 3h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 97¢ $306 3h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 97¢ $180 3h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? SELL No 94¢ $557 3h
Will Micron (MU) close at $900-$920 on the final day of trading of the BUY No 98¢ $29 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,433.51 · official $1,433.51 (match) · 3500 history records