Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:07:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x731d…c932 other 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$508 (-27%) realized −$502 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$425now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$617
sports 4% +$64
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -21.9% -29.4% 43% 36% -44.8%
≤30d 14 -21.9% -29.4% 43% 36% -44.8%
≤90d 14 -21.9% -29.4% 43% 36% -44.8%
all 14 -21.9% -29.4% 43% 36% -44.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.4% 36% -44.8%
10% -36.1% 29% -50.1%
15% -42.3% 29% -54.9%
20% -48.0% 21% -59.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$100 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$425
Realized−$502
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions10
Markets (closed)14 / 24
History coverage3d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $99 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 55¢ $39 $41 +$2 (+5%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $39 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-3%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $39 $35 −$3 (-9%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $19 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $20 +$37 +186%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $40 +$28 +71%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $200 +$126 +63%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $498 −$470 -94%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 25 $100 −$86 -86%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $50 −$48 -96%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 25 $40 −$3 -7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $60 −$57 -96%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $120 +$44 +37%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $120 +$19 +16%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $50 −$49 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $40 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 76¢ $60 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $40 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 29¢ $40 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $40 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $40 11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $40 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 11h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 95¢ $20 14h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 14h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 92¢ $68 16h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $40 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 3¢ $17 41h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 3¢ $11 41h
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 1 Sweden? SELL Yes 1¢ $14 42h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Germany? BUY Yes 12¢ $50 2d
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 6¢ $100 2d
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 0 Sweden? SELL Yes 9¢ $37 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $200 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $100 2d
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 9¢ $40 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $40 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $60 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $100 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $164 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $98 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $424.62 · official $424.62 (match) · 39 history records