Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:34:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7320…00ba world 88 markets active 2h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate41%35W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$2
politics 18% +$2
other 14% −$4
sports 10% −$4
crypto 4% $0
economics 4% $0
finance 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
weather 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.4% -9.2% 50% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 29 +0.1% -9.4% 41% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 73 +0.1% -9.4% 37% 0% -9.5%
all 86 +2.7% -7.1% 41% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 5% -9.8%
10% -16.0% 5% -18.4%
15% -24.1% 3% -26.3%
20% -31.6% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses35 / 51
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)86 / 88
History coverage526d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 95¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 97¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $72 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $37 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $230 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $7 −$1 -7%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $28 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $45 +$4 +9%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $28 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $54 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $73 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $35 −$1 -3%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $11 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $102 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $52 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $32 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $34 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $67 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 31 $2 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $63 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $32 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 29 $23 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $65 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $31 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $34 +$1 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 20 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $32 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $33 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $31 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $31 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $34 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $31 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $41 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $68 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $142 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $99 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $106 $0 +0%
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Apr 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $32 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $7 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $33 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $9 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $26 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $34 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $34 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $38 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $38 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $8 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $26 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $34 19h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $12 24h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $0 26h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $1 26h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $10 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $37 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $37 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $34 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $12 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $22 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 26¢ $7 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 28¢ $7 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $25 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $17 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $13 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $28 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.48 · official $34.33 (match) · 328 history records