Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:26:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7322…9f57 sports 370 markets active 2h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$266 (-4%) realized −$273 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%165W / 196L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$93
7 days−$761
14 days−$381
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$58
other 14% −$74
crypto 9% −$103
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 129 -24.7% -31.9% 26% 26% -44.3%
≤30d 181 -2.5% -11.8% 42% 41% -11.0%
≤90d 361 -4.7% -13.8% 46% 44% -13.4%
all 361 -4.7% -13.8% 46% 44% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 44% -13.4%
10% -22.0% 39% -21.7%
15% -29.5% 32% -29.2%
20% -36.4% 26% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$11 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized−$273
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses165 / 196
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions5
Markets (closed)361 / 370
History coverage59d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 361 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $74 $81 +$8 (+10%)
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech Naomi Osaka 72¢ 70¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Team Liquid 6¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 21 $5 +$50 +975%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $10 +$21 +206%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $20 +$14 +67%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$23 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 21 $7 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$5 -48%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $41 +$84 +206%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $30 +$10 +34%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $10 +$11 +109%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $40 +$15 +38%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $81 −$80 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $46 +$15 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 19 $8 −$2 -19%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 19 $35 −$35 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$16 +312%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $20 +$13 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$35 +344%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech BUY Naomi Osaka 72¢ $30 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 6¢ $31 1h
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 18h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $20 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 20h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $10 20h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 32¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $9 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.42 · official $200.42 · 870 history records