Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:11:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
73 0x7326…1b30 other 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 615d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$118 (+1%) realized +$118 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate26%20W / 58L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$291per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 61% −$14
other 18% −$39
politics 14% −$10
sports 2% +$178
culture 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 +9.2% -1.2% 18% 6% -8.9%
≤90d 61 +11.4% +0.8% 25% 20% -8.5%
all 78 +14.8% +3.9% 26% 18% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.9% 18% -9.1%
10% -6.1% 18% -17.8%
15% -15.1% 17% -25.7%
20% -23.5% 15% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$3 · ×4.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

615d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized+$118
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses20 / 58
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)78 / 79
History coverage615d
Avg bet$291
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $114 $114 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $30 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $387 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $36 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $36 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $43 $0 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $27 $0 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $7 +$11 +158%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $23 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $23 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 02 $236 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 02 $113 $0 +0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $27 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $34 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $41 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $206 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $184 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $170 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $185 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 03 $171 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $173 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $177 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $352 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $179 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $173 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $187 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 26 $186 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $189 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $183 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $179 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 25 $189 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $172 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $170 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 22 $188 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $187 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $190 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $178 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $170 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $354 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $178 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 14 $175 $0 -0%
Will the Nashville Predators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 14 $192 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $4 +$7 +172%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 10 $7 +$4 +60%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 10 $9 +$5 +55%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $15 +$12 +79%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $16 +$7 +46%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $7 +$5 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $114 18h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $22 25h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $22 27h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 5d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 5d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 6d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 6d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 7d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 7d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 8d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 9d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Washington Nationals 38¢ $7 10d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 13d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $23 14d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 14d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $23 15d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $23 15d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $27 17d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 17d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $34 18d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $34 18d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $41 19d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $41 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $36 21d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $35 24d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $35 24d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $39 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.61 · official $113.61 (match) · 334 history records