Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:45:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

73
0x7326…cf4c
other · 6 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$180 +16%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$117 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$387
Realized+$117
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage117d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit17%
Chart Positions 2 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$117
7 days+$117
14 days+$117
30 days+$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $263 $260 −$4 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $125 $128 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 14 $325 −$49 -15%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $101 +$33 +32%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $291 +$135 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 91% +$83
sports 9% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $276 57m
Will France go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? SELL Yes 67¢ $276 58m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $133 58m
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 72¢ $101 6h
Will France go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 72¢ $325 6h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $291 22h
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY No 1¢ $2 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -9.0% -17.7% 50% 50% +5.2%
≤30d 4 -9.0% -17.7% 50% 50% +5.2%
≤90d 4 -9.0% -17.7% 50% 50% +5.2%
all 4 -9.0% -17.7% 50% 50% +5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 50% +5.2%
10% -25.6% 50% -4.9%
15% -32.8% 25% -14.0%
20% -39.4% 0% -22.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $387.18 · official $387.18 (match) · 10 history records